Tsvangirai Takes Out A Gun, Prepares To Shoot Himself In The Foot. Again.

This was Morgan Tsvangirai launching a fresh, new 100-day plan (more like a wish-list I said back then and I have been proved right). Now he tells us he can not fulfill any of his promises unless he gets Governors, ambassadors and Roy Bennett is sworn in as Deputy Minister of Agriculture. But, more disturbing is the move to boycott new elections that Mugabe hinted at during his address to the ZANU PF Women's League last week

Harare, Zimbabwe, 22 September 2009

First of all, you should know that we are having immense challenges with our internet connections in Zimbabwe right now. Even normally reliable routes are proving a challenge.

So much for Nelson Chamisa's promise of having improved the internet connections by 60% within 100 days. Those 100 days are gone and we are back to square one.

It is ZANU PF all over again. Except this time, it is a creature called MDC-PF.

But to my point here today:

This is a poser, is it not?

Yesterday, the MDC, through its spokesman, the Minister Not-Quite In Charge of Communicatiosn, Nelson Chamisa, reacted to Mugabe's statement that ZANU PF should prepare for elections in 2011.

The MDC says they will only agree to elections if there is a new constitution and a new Zimbabwe Electoral Commission in place.

This is a reasonable demand, mind you. But it is the painting themselves into a corner that is a problem.

We all know that Mugabe supports whatever the MDC is against. So, he will probably go ahead regardless. Having stymied the constitution-making process and with the Electoral Commission from last year in place, he will go ahead and call for those elections.

What will the MDC do then? Boycott them? Of course not, they do not have the guts.

We have been here before. At the last elections, the MDC were refusing to take part, claiming that the elections violated the spirit of the talks that were then underway, which had started in 2005.

Mugabe pressed ahead regardless.

Eventually, seeing that they could not stop this train, the jumped in.

But the question now is what happens if the MDC decides that it will not take part in those elections and Mugabe presses ahead? What will they do if Mavambo and other parties decide to jump in and take on ZANU PF?

More importantly, what will they do if, havign taken on ZANU PF, Mavambo wins the elections, beating Mugabe and ZANU PF into second place?

Would they demand a rerun?

I doubt anyone would agree to that. Why? Because it would be tantamount to holding an entire nation to ransom on account of the ambitions of a small group of potential MPs. The MDC would essentially be saying that elections are legitimate only if they win, even if Mugabe loses to another party.

I doubt anyone would agree with that sentiment.

The MDC knows this. So this nothing but mere posturing, which should be ignored.

As usual, the MDC is letting Mugabe set the agenda for this country and all they do is react. Whether they like it or not, Mugabe will, yet again, lead them by the nose into a new election. They will take part. Mugabe knows this.

The more they make noise about boycotting new elections, the more Mugabe will make noise about pressing ahead with them.

It is, once again, a case of Morgan Tsvangirai trying his best to shoot himself in the foot, posturing while knowing very well that he has no choice but to capitulate. Again.



  1. Quick questions Denford,

    Do you beleive that Mugabe will let another party win this time? Won't he rig the elections as usual?

  2. Hi Farai,

    Sorry I could not respond sooner, but I am still having problems with our internet connections.

    The rigging of elections by Mugabe has been blown out of proportion by an ineffective and ineffectual Tsvangirai and MDC.

    If Mugabe is such a renowned rigger, how come the last results gave MDC a majority in parliament and Tsvangirai a bigger percentage of the presidential vote than Mugabe?

    Mugabe's rigging normally takes the form of intimidation before voting, as well as propaganda.

    For instance, an extremely large majority of Zimbabweans in the rural areas have been shown by independent research to believe completely that Tsvangirai is the cause of their suffering because he called for sanctions.

    To a very large extent (MDC apologists will deny this until they are blue in the face, but it is the truth) this is the reason why Tsvangirai will not get a majority in the rural areas.

    The other angle is that, win or lose, those with guns will never accept Tsvangirai even if he gave them a trillion dollars each.

    I have interacted with the leaders of our armed forces and I was stunned by their overblown sense of dignity. And they feel that Tsvangirai has insulted not only their dignity, but that of Zimbabwe and of Mugabe and every person who has ever fought for liberation from Rhodesian rule.

    Yes, MDC supporters will dismiss this and will heap even more insults on them for taking this attitude.

    They will point out that everyone's parents fought the war and have a right not to be oppressed.

    They will be right.

    But in so doing and leading Tsvangirai to satisfy their empty desire to hear and see these people humilated through rally speeches, they lose the bigger picture.

    Any strategist will tell you that you can never solve a problem you do not understand.

    Man needed to understand how gravity works in order to defy it with aeroplanes etc etc.

    He did not, like the MDC did, simply say it is impossible and give up.

    This is the only reason I think Simba Makoni, with or without Mavambo, can triumph. I have seen with my own eyes and heard with my own ears die-hard ZANU PF supporters express an acceptance of Makoni as a leader, even from outside their party.

    You will see next time that, given time to campaign, he is going to turn large swathes of ZANU PF strongholds into his own strongholds.

    What he will need is to also turn the urban centres, otherwise we will back to the splitting of votes, but this time between Tsvangirai and Makoni, with Mugabe out of the picture.

    One day I shall tell you of an incident I witnessed with my own eyes on the secluded 15th Floor of the Sheraton just after the MArch elections which left me with no doubt that Makoni will get the support of the Service Chiefs in a heartbeat. In fact, I know he already has it.

    The core of Mugabe's support, which is sizeable despite the propaganda, is implacable towards Tsvangirai as much as the core of Tsvangirai's support is implacable towards Mugabe.

    Makoni, meanwhile, is actually the unifier.

    Of course, he is feared by a small group of vested interests on either side, but the vast majority of Zimbabweans see him as acceptable.

    This being a comment (few people read comments), I can tell you this little secret: so far, since launching in July, Makoni has registered just over 700 000 members!!

    He is not registering now because he has n=run out of membership forms! But I see his party having more than a million members by next year.

    This is extraordinary by any measure and people are going to be surprised by his strategies at the next elections.

    This man, I can bet 50 000 US dollars now, is going to win the next elections so convincingly that there will nothing anyone can do about it.


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