Why Mugabe Is Walking Away From The Coalition

PICTURE OF HEALTH: It appears even Morgan Tsvangirai has given up on Mugabe retiring, telling an audience at Wits University barely two weeks ago: "President Mugabe is not going anywhere. He is with us in this government until we achieve positive results"

The commenting system on the Blogger platform, who host this blog, has been misbehaving for some days now and I commiserate with all who have called and emailed to say you can not leave your comments.

I am sure the blog platform are aware of this glitch and are fixing it, so we should be back to normal soon.

A few of you who have called or emailed today were asking how feasible it is for Mugabe to go it alone, to abandon the Coalition with Tsvangirai as he has now clearly decided to do.

First thing to understand is that Mugabe now believes that the MDC needs the GNU more than he does.

The explanation is found in the story below this one, the story in which I tell you about Mugabe's ZANU PF publicly humilating the MDC by revealing that:

• STERP (The Short Term Economic Recovery Programme) was crafted by ZANU PF before MDC agreed to join the Coalition and simply presented to Biti for him to take to cabinet upon taking office (this has not been disputed by the MDC, so we can conclude that this is true)
• Dollarisation was introduced by ZANU PF (this is public knowledge and we all know that it is Chinamasa who introduced dollarisation in his budget as Acting Minister of Finance before the MDC even announced that they had agreed to go into a coalition with ZANU PF)
• Licencing for all providers of goods and services to charge in foreign currency was introduced by ZANU PF (again, this is public knowledge, we all heard Gono make the announcement in the Monetary Policy that followed the Chinamasa Budget. This, again, was before MDC even announced its decision to join government)

Now, it is not in dispute, even amongst MDC-T die-hard supporters, that these measures have brought a measure of relief on the inflation front and on the economic front.

The Prime Minister has been, over the last two weeks or so, pointing to these measures as the big achievements of this Inclusive Government. He claims inflation is now at minus 3%.

Mugabe and ZANU PF are now saying, since they did these things by themselves without the MDC-T or M, since these measures have been proved to be successful and to bring results, what on earth do they need the MDC-T for?

It is a very real position within ZANU PF that with or without the MDC, what Mugabe's party did in January this year would have brought the same results.

ZANU PF readily admits that the only thing they need MDC-T for is removal of sanctions. But it is now clear to them that these are not being lifted.

As one senior member said yesterday, "why should we allow them to claim credit for our success when they are not doing anything at all about the sanctions? Tsvangirai has achieved nothing since coming to office, nothing."

So, ZANU PF clearly now believes that were it to be left alone in government, it would essentially continue with the route they put in place in January (dollarisation) and see this bring in results, changing the face of Zimbabwe's economy.

Now, the economy was Mugabe's biggest problem, the root of his unpopularity and the issue that turned the whole country against his party. They had to be forced to support him.

He is certain that the correction of the economy signals his ascendancy back to supremacy. 

The key to defeating an enemy is to understand how he thinks, and not to prejudice our opinion of him because of our hatred for him. A long line of brilliant Generals, from Ceasar to Eisenhower, grasped this simple truth in the cradle

The trump card the MDC-T held, which was that they could open floodgates to aid coming into Zimbabwe, has been proved to be hollow and false. The aid is not forthcoming.

Based on this, Mugabe is now absolutely certain that he will lose nothing if the MDC walks away from the coalition today.

He can not fire them, but he would like them to go.  This is where we are. This is what we we face.

It is indeed true that the only thing that will change today if the MDC-T walks away is that they will not longer be in office, they being the MDC-T.

Otherwise, everythig else remains as it is now. Nothing will change.

AS FOR THOSE CREDIT LINES: ZANU PF SAID THROUGH THE HERALD TWO DAYS AGO THAT THESE WERE ALL NEGOTIATED AND SEALED BY GONO AND BITI HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THEM.

So, the MDC has not even brought those grants into the country, except for the US$22 million that was announced yesterday by the World Bank.

But you must remember how insignificant this is: this sum from the World Bank, negotiated by Tsvangirai, is barely enough to cover just the salaries of the bloated civil service for ONE MONTH.

ZANU PF says, through Gono, it brought in the credit lines amounting to almost a billion which Biti was now trying to take credit for.

None of these claims have been dismissed by the MDC-T, so they stand and are true.

If you are in doubt, please tell me now the one thing that the MDC-T has given Mugabe during the short life of this GNU that would he wouldn't have got otherwise.

I agree, it is unpalatable. But the truth has a certain way of being unpalatable.