MDC Tsvangirai - A Capitulation, A Daring Caveat And Mugabe's Planned State of Emergency

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Below, you will find the full text of the capitulation document from MDC Tsvangirai. There are a lot of words, yes. But look carefully at Resolution Number 3: "Given the lack of sincerity and lack of paradigm shift on the part of Zanu PF, the MDC shall participate in a new government once Constitutional Amendment No. 19 has been passed and effected into law."

Thats all you need to know folks. If that statement is as legally or even as morally binding as it is clear, then we will have the MDC Tsvangirai in government. The statement, buried as it is bang in the middle of a lot of protest words, would lead a casual observer to deduce that the MDC-T is participating in this government. Reluctantly, participating. It raises questions of the effectiveness of that government before it is even formed. What chance does this new born baby have considering that its parents tried to drown it and then dump it but were only talked out of the whole business by their neighbours and told to keep it, take it in and feed it?

But then, you look closely at that phrase and realise that it is loaded. Here's the potential act of breathtaking audacity. Constitutional Amendment No 19 can only be passed and effected into law by a two thirds majority in parliament. That is what you need to change the constitution. Mugabe does not have that majority. He could not get it even if he got the votes of all of Arthur Mutambara's MPs (something that will never happen, AGO himself says). He NEEDS MDC Tsvangirai to pass that Ammendment. Could it be then that MDC-T has decided to send a message in parliament by having it recalled, sit and vote on this Bill. At this point, the MDC MPs would all vote against this ammendment as a block. That would effectively kill this Agreement. To follow our analogy, all the neighbours would have managed to achieve would be to have the parents drown the baby after taking it indoors.

It is a breathtaking strategy that could succeed spectacularly. The MDC would be able to claim that they could not implement the law without the approval of the people and that their MPs had simply sent a message from the people to the leadership of the country. The AU and perhaps the UN would then have reason to get involved, assuming they take this event as an escalation of the Zimbabwe crisis.

But it could also all go pear-shaped. It could provoke SADC into delcaring that MDC-T are proving to be the intransigent ones, flouting a ruling from SADC that they themselves solicited, delivering the killer blow to the agreement through their elected representatives. Look, it is probably true that even Mugabe does not want this thing. He was forced into it after SADC consulted the AU in the aftermath the June 27 vote and came out in support of Simba Makoni's lobbying efforts for a Transitional Authority or Government of National Unity.

Because neither parent wanted the child, they went into it with every intention of trying their darnest to do the baby in eveytime they thought no one was looking. The MDC may well have set a strategy for their coup de grace on this Agreement. Or, taken at face value, it is the one sentence that encapsulates the point of this whole press release: MDC are participating under protest.

So it is a capitulation then, but with an extremely daring caveat which, if carried through to its logical strategic conclusion, would set this country on a path from which it will never return. That part will lead either to the capitulation of Mugabe or to a serious blow to the MDC-T, perhaps even a fatal one.

Read carefully please, and keep Resolution No 3 in mind throughout. It is the thread by which this agreement now hangs.

The Statement was read by Thokozani Khupe, the MDc-T Deputy President. It is assumend that Tsvangirai is still in South Africa or back in Botswana where his family now live.

Full text of MDC National Council Resolution
November 14, 2008

RESOLUTIONS OF THE 7th MDC NATIONAL COUNCIL OF 2008
Harare, November 14, 2008

PREAMBLE
NOTING the resolution of the African Union of the 30th of June 2008, taken in Sharm El-Scheikh, Egypt, on the resolution of the Zimbabwean crisis, dialogue commenced between Zanu PF and the MDC culminating in the MOU on the 21st of July 2008, and the Global Political Agreement (GPA) on the 11th of September 2008 with the signing ceremony on the 15th of September 2008.
AWARE of the high expectations of the people of Zimbabwe and Africa following the execution of the GPA.
NOTWITHSTANDING that the GPA was to come into effect immediately after its execution, Zanu PF has in fact prevented the implementation of this agreement and its consummation.
NOTING the material unresolved and outstanding issues connected to the dialogue in particular;

i. The non-enactment of Constitutional Amendment No. 19

ii. The appointment of Provincial Governors

iii. The appointment of senior government officials such as Permanent Secretaries and Ambassadors

iv. The equitable distribution of ministerial portfolios

v. The composition and constitution of the National Security Councilvi. The fraudulent and unexplained alteration of the agreement of the 11th of September 2008 and the one that was signed on the 15th of September 2008

APPRECIATING the keen desire of SADC and other key institutions of seeing a genuine resolution of the Zimbabwean crisis and expressing gratitude for the huge amounts of time and effort devoted by the same leaders to the same,

DESIROUS of achieving finality to the current dispute given the economic meltdown and the massive suffering of the people of Zimbabwe reflected in entrenched poverty the collapse of public health, education, transport , water and energy crisis, monetary policy dislocation and supersonic inflation.

CONCERNED with the obstructionist approach, lack of paradigm shift and the entrenched power retention agenda of Zanu PF reflected in;
a. serious breaches to the Memorandum of Understanding,

b. renewed violence, abductions and assaults against the MDC and the people of Zimbabwe in the obvious direction of replicating the post 29 March barbaric violence, in particular the arrest and continued detention of MDC Mashonaland West senior leadership such as Concilia Chinanzvavana and ten others at unknown centres,

c. concerned about the hindrance, denial and obstruction of food aid to Zimbabweans,

d. the vicious attack on Civic Society members such as Jennie Williams and Magodonga Mahlangu of WOZA, Lovemore Madhukuof NCA and members of ZINASU,

e. the vicious and unmitigated hate speech, propaganda and unbecomingstatements in the State media,

f. the crafting of an assassination plot, code named Operation Ngatipedzenavo intended to eliminate the MDC leadership and decimate the Party through frivolous allegations, and

g. Zanu PF training of militia in Zimbabwe to be redeployed back intothe country from neighbouring countries posing as MDC bandits andrebels.

FURTHER CONCERNED about the non-sitting of Parliament and the destructive interference with Local Authorities and MDC Councillors.

Now this Council resolves that:
1. The Party expresses acknowledgement for the role and efforts of SADC and the AU in finding solutions to the crisis in Zimbabwe.

2. The MDC rejects:-a. The Organ Troika’s resolution and Communiqué of 28 October 2008 seeking to erroneously reduce the sticking points to only the Ministryof Home Affairs. b. The SADC “ruling” and communiqué of the 9th of November 2008 on the basis that the same was unprocedurally arrived at in that Robert Mugabe, an interested party, sat in during deliberations in total defiance of the SADC Chairman’s ruling that the three Zimbabwean parties recuse themselves c. The Communiqués of the 28th of October and 9th of November ignored the other five outstanding issues, in particular, the principle of equity and the fact that a new government cannot be formed without Constitutional Amendment No. 19 and all other issues remain outstanding.

3. Given the lack of sincerity and lack of paradigm shift on the part of Zanu PF, the MDC shall participate in a new government once Constitutional Amendment No. 19 has been passed and effected into law.

4. Implores the high offices of SADC and the AU as underwriters and guarantors of this agreement to step in and ensure a successful conclusion and finality to the current breakdown.

5. Notes that there was a sham election on the 27th of June 2008 and therefore neither Robert

Mugabe nor Zanu PF have the legitimacy of forming any government or running this country in the absence of the consummation of the GPA, the enactment of Constitutional Amendment No. 19 and the resolution of all other outstanding issues. In addition, the SADC resolution of the 9th of November does not bestow any right on Robert Mugabe or Zanu PF of forming any government or inviting any Party to joining that government.

6. The longer that this crisis remains outstanding, then the obligation on SADC, AU and the people of Zimbabwe that a transitional authority be instituted pending the enactment of a new people driven constitution and the holding of elections under African and international supervision.

7. In the event of an illegitimategovernment being unilaterally formed, the MDC will not be part to the same and will peacefully, constitutionally and democratically mobilize and campaign against the illegitimate government.

8. The humanitarian crisis has to be urgently attended and that Zanu PF and its interim authority must ensure free, unfettered availability and access of food aid and more importantly the international community must exercise its obligation of Responsibility to Protect under the United Nations.

9. The MDC submits itself before God and reaffirms its commitment to the present dialogue and more importantly reaffirms its commitment to achieving democratization in Zimbabwe through constitutional, peaceful nonviolent and democratic means.

10. Parliament must be convened as a matter of urgency to carry out its normal business of overseeing the Executive.

11. Ignatius Chombo and the Zanu-PF authorities desist from obstructing and interfering with

the work of Local Authorities.

FOR AND ON BEHALF OF THE SUFFERING AND STRUGGLING PEOPLE OF ZIMBABWE.
THANK YOU.
MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE

P.S. Robert Mugabe has now also deduced that the MDC strategy that is to defeat the Ammendment No 19 if parliament in recalled. As of this morning (Saturday, 15 November 2008), there is a new strategy approved by ZANU PF.

They have agreed to recall parliament and dare the MDC to vote down the Ammendment. When the ammendment is defeated, ZANU PF will immediately declare a state of emergency. Parliament will be suspended, most laws will be suspended and all civil liberties will be also be suspended. The country will then basically operate under Martial Law.

A new Emergency Council, chaired by Mugabe and consisting mostly of the military and uniformed forces will be put in place to act as the government. ZANU PF plan on this arrangement to last for some time. There will be no room for elections or campaigning and a change from this state of emergency will be premised on the SADC resolutions being implemented.

It is now a game of chess, which Mugabe has definitely decided to play alongside the MDC.