Denford Magora's Zimbabwe Blog

The National Security Council (NSC) finally met for the first time yesterday under the Chairmanship of Robert "The Solution" Mugabe, whom the State Media now never mention without adding "Head of State and Government and Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Forces."

Gideon Gono's festive Monetary Policy tradition came to end yesterday. Instead of calling all and sundry (even our advertising agency got an invite) to his Mount to hear the Sermon, he called in only bank industry CEOs this time.

He is much more restricted now, with the ending of quasi-fiscal activities and therefore can not pronounce policy position on all sorts of areas as he used to.

"Our strong views and preference, however, are that as Zimbabweans, we must have our own currency and autonomy in formulating our fiscal and monetary policies."

They also demand that Monetary Policy be centrally planned at the SA Reserve Bank and that there be a plan in place for Zimbabwe's government to be self-sufficient. Meaning borrowing from the SA Reserve Bank to fund consumption was out of the question.

Two weeks ago, Tendai Biti announced during his mid-term Budget Statement that he was inclined to do exactly what Gono now seems to oppose.

Biti signalled that the Zimbabwe dollar was dead and the government had started thinking of a policy that is (appro) "in line with SADC envisaged goal of a Single Monetary Union by 2018."

Gono and Mugabe clearly do not want this at all. They want to be able to fund election campaigns with state money from the Central Bank without anyone asking what the money is being withdrawn for.

They want to continue the buying of loyalty and spreading of patronage on the hunched backs of the overworked, underpaid and overtaxed Zimbabwe people, whose money it is that Gono was so liberal with before, during and after elections.

It is a victory for Mugabe and ZANU PF, clearly, that this body, which houses very senior figures from all parties (especially the negotiators themselves) has now genuflected to this hard stance taken by the Solution and his cronies.

The answer is simple enough and was given to me a few moments ago by a senior figure within the MDC-T.

Essentially, it is explained, Tsvangirai is also eyeing the provision within the Kariba Draft which says that if a sitting president dies or is otherwise incapacitated, then parliament sits as an Electoral College and elects a president to serve out the remaining term of the previous president.

Which provision essentially means there is scope for a president elected this way to be in power for four years or so if something happens to Mugabe within a year of his being re-elected (by hook or by crook, especially by crook.)

The Prime Minister, therefore, believes that he will be able to muster a majority in parliament and be elected to the post by his own MPs and Senators when the time comes, if has a majority in parliament.

He is mistaken, of course.

It is conceivable that, just as he did in 2000, Mugabe may well unilaterally change things that would have been agreed on through the nationwide consultation process.

This risk is the reason why Lovemore Madhuku of the NCA, Matombo of ZCTU and others are opposed to a "politically-driven process".

Take the process out of the hands of the politicians, right up to the stage of the referendum itself, and there will be virtually no risk that Mugabe could delete paragraphs and insert others of his choosing as he did in 2000.

If not, then smokey backrooms at parliament, Mugabe's home in Helensvale, State House and other spaces will become the final places in which the bargaining and subversion of the people's will takes place, long after the process is considered done but before a referendum.

If it is rejected, this suits Mugabe, because he has all he needs to continue as he is in the current constitution.

You can also rest assured that, when he does cry foul and points to Mugabe's skulduggery, we will be urged by MDC-T supporters and apologists to "support him" in rectifying a mistake he is being told of even now.

They will try to bully us and stampede us into lining up behind Tsvangirai, who would have been outwitted yet again by Mugabe. Essentially, they will be asking us to cover up for his mistakes, yes, but also for the greed for power that he is exhibiting even now in plotting scenarios that have no hope of succeeding in levering him into the presidential office.

Now we know. And now you know.

Robert "The Solution" Mugabe's party, ZANU PF, is "strengthening our structures in the Diaspora to ensure that they spread our message."

The statement was made on Tuesday by Savour Kasukuwere, the Minister of Youth and one of those accused by the MDC-T of being behind the disruption of the Constitutional Conference at the Harare International Conference Centre.

Those in Diaspora can rest assured that they will soon see some of their comrades living it up as money from the Diamond Fields is poured into their coffers in order for them to "spread the message."

This statement comes as Bulawayo Youth League for Mugabe's party endorsed him to continue as President at the ZANU PF Congress scheduled for December this year. So far, Manicaland, Midlands (where Mnangagwa, the heir-apparent, went overboard in labelling Mugabe "The Great Leader"), Masvingo and Harare Youth League have announced they will be backing Mugabe.

It still remains a curious state of affairs for some of us that in places like Harare and Bulawayo, it is the Youth League that is doing the endorsing, and not the Provincial Executive.

As Dr Makoni said to me yesterday, Mugabe will almost certainly "force all the other provinces to endorse him." Still, it is telling that, while there is stampede by the youths (they get beer bought for them and bits of cash here and there in order to buy their loyalty), the leadership in the provinces remains silent.

There is also discussion of a march in Harare and the town where the Congress will be held (probably Bindura) in support of Mugabe. Everyone will stay indoors, obviously, in case they get caught up in the melee.

He has already told his leadership team that he and he alone can win an election under the current circumstances. He is coupling this with the Kariba Draft (which MDC-T now have bought into, as I will explain in my next article) of the Constitution, dangling the possibility that he will step down soon after winning the next General Election and allow his successor to rule for four years without having to go for an election, as provided for by the Kariba Draft constitution.

JOMIC (and by implication, MDC-T, which sits on that body) has now endorsed the Kariba Draft as the basis of a new constitution.

No wonder Lovemore Matombo of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions said, "They are indicating left but turning right."

I told you a couple of days ago that our phone lines went dead and our Internet connection also disappeared.

The lines came back yesterday of their own accord, after TelOne said as far as their systems were concerned, everything was working fine and they had no idea what had happened to our switchboard.

They were acting on the instructions of Nicholas Goche, the Minister of Transport and Communications, who now administers the Interception of Communications Bill, according to information at hand. This Bill had originally fallen under Nelson Chamisa's Information Communication Technology before Mugabe raised a lot of dust by gutting that Ministry.

Amidst protests from the MDC-T, he gave back to Chamisa control of some of the things he originally had, including administering ISPs. But Mugabe retained the Interception of Communications Bill. This is why.

With the country suffering massive power cuts still, with no water flowing in the taps, civil servants struggling to feed themselves, let alone look after their families or improve the quality of their lives, Mugabe and his crew find money, time and energy to do this?

Priorities are wrong, money is being spent on frivolous things while the country burns. But we get told time and again by the Prime Minister that Mugabe is the Solution to Zimbabwe's problem, that he is vital to our future and that he is "not going anywhere"?

Go figure.

First, apologies, it appears I spoke too soon. No sooner had sung the praises of Nelson Chamisa than Internet connection in Zimbabwe collapsed entirely.

While we are back online at the Mavambo offices, with out phones and internet connection restored, my other internet connections went completely dead.

Curiously, last night, as I was working on some posts for the blog and doing other housekeeping things, electricity at the office was also switched off. It is almost unheard of for power to go in the city centre and, even more suspicious, the power went only on the block where our offices are (about ten building on one side of George Silundika. As I drove out, everywhere else there was power).

But we could never expect anything else from this Inclusive Misgovernment.

***********************

Anyway, to today's embarrassing story:

A deputy Minister from Prime Minister Tsvangira's party has been arrested for stealing a mobile phone belonging to Ware Veterans leader Joseph Chinotimba.

Former allies of the MDC-T, the Zimbabwe Congress Of Trade Unions and the National Constitutional Assembly have blasted Morgan Tsvangirai and Robert Mugabe over their failures on not only the constitution but also the running of the country in general.

I just wondered how many of you out there noticed that Robert "The Solution" Mugabe has launched a charm offensive against the MDC-T top leadership.

Yesterday, a photo of Mugabe and Deputy Prime Minister Khupe was splashed on the front page of the Sunday Mail. The two appeared to be joking around and enjoying each other's company.

They were off to Uganda, for some summit or other, at which another Strongman, Yoweri Museveni, launched a broadside at Britain and the west, asking them to "leave Zimbabwe alone."

What you are seeing is the slow softening up of the MDC-T leadership. I have been told before by impeccable sources that Mugabe believes he is unbeatable in a face to face charm offensive. Of course, like the legendary persuasive powers of Cecil John Rhodes at the Diamond Fields, much of this depends very much on the weight of the office the person holds.

I suspect we will know soon enough. The Deputy PM (MDC-Tsvangirai), who only a few weeks back was boycotting cabinet and, with a straight face, suggesting that Mugabe and Tsvangirai were "on par", equals in government and executive authority, will start taking positions you and I will find difficult to understand.

But cast your mind back to this moment and all will be clear.

Tendai Biti has already been enrolled into the programme, although he continues to lose track now and again and lapses into veiled criticisms of ZANU PF (never Mugabe). I suppose in a short space of time, we will know.

I have told you before that Tsvangirai has been brought round by Mugabe and that is why he went ahead and announced unsatisfactory "agreements" on Permanent Secretaries, Governors, Bennett and other issues, even as his party demanded that those very issues be included on the list of "outstanding issues".

It is likely that Tsvangirai will explain to Zuma the new and strange sense of optimism the MDC-T now has with regards Mugabe. He will insist that it was all a ploy to push Mugabe into acting. He will point to the laughable deal on Permanent Secretaries, Governors, Ambassadors and Principal Directors as proof that Mugabe responded.

Tsvangirai would like to pursue the other issues "diplomatically" as he puts it. Basically, this means sucking up to Mugabe, playing along, honouring, respecting and expecting a bone or two to be thrown his way. That would be diplomatic triumph for him.

We watch. We wait. And we will see.

Had a visit today from a resident of the Pfungwe area in Zimbabwe and he told me something that would be funny if it were not so sad. This is the area where an MDC supporter was beaten so thoroughly a week or so back, that she can hardly speak.

Apparently, the "talk" amongst ZANU PF hardcores is: "Makabatana kutown ikoko, kwete kunoku" - meaning, "Your unity applies only in the towns, not out here."

Mugabe's party enjoys crushing majorities in the area and has done so since Independence. Last year, for the March elections, Mugabe had the bright idea of splitting the area into three constituencies, thereby gaining three seats where he would have got just one.

But that was aside.

First, sometime during the weekend (today being Monday 27 July 2009), the Mavambo Head Office in Harare was completely cut off from the communications system. All our six lines went dead. Our Internet connection disappeared.

This is still the case now. There were promises from TelOne today to "look into it and attend to the fault" this morning. And that was the last we heard of the matter.

So here we sit, unable to get phone calls on our lines just at the moment the phone was ringing off the hook with people seeking to find out where and when the structures in their provinces will be set up.

Dr Makoni, who usually works at the offices into the dark of night today ended up leaving early. Thank goodness for cellphones, although those who were calling mine today got a message that "this number is no longer in service", even as I chatted merrily away with people that I had called on that very same number.

It may well be that we are all falling victim to the decay of infrastructure which this Inclusive Government is failing to make a dent in. It may well be a sign of the times in which Zimbabwe lives.

Perhaps.

But what is clear is that the "fault" comes at such a crucial moment for the party. And those next door to us had no problems at all with their phone lines.

There was pandemonium, anger and even consternation amongst civil servants today when they went to the bank to pick up their "salaries" as announced by Tendai Biti.

It was they who told of queues from here to Kingdom Come at the banks. It appears there is an administrative glitch or the government simply does not have enough money to fund its wage bill. Worse, when they got their money, they discovered that their new "salaries were US$115 after deductions.

Doctors apparently managed to net a grand total of no more than US$200. Meantime, complained the group, prices had already gone up in anticipation of the "windfall" about to befall the civil servants of Zimbabwe (all quarter of a million of them, plus dependants).

They are sick of it all, as can be expected. And we were more than happy to welcome them, because a country in the 21st century should not be living like this. All that is needed is the will. The political will. Right now, none of the incumbents can muster it.

Meantime, Madhuku and Friends have started an All People's Convention on the Constitution. There were no kind words there for Mugabe or Tsvangirai, especially as it now emerges (reported on in the State Newspapers yesterday) that JOMIC, comprising senior ministers from ZANU PF and the two MDCs have decided that the Kariba Draft, that tyranny in ink, be adopted as the basis for a new constitution.

I myself can hardly wait.

When Morgan Tsvangirai repeatedly told audiences in South Africa, the United States and Europe that, "President Mugabe is not going anywhere..", he had not consulted the people of Zimbabwe about this.

He also had no idea whose language he was speaking, or did he?

The ZANU PF Harare Province Youth Wing came out at the weekend to endorse The Solution as the leader of the party ahead of the ZANU PF Congress to be held in December.

Also endorsing the continued keeping watch over the corpse that is Zimbabwe by Mugabe was the Manicaland Provincial Executive for ZANU PF.

Last weekend, of course, Emmerson Mnangagwa, the Minister of Defence, heir-apparent to Mugabe and one of the party's most senior figures also endorsed Mugabe for the presidency.

These ZANU PF structures, including the party's secretary for administration, Didymus Mutasa, were also clear that the December Congress was being held only to confirm Mugabe in his post.

This is democracy, ZANU PF-style.

And Morgan Tsvangirai has bought into it hook, line and sinker.

This does nothing to serve the interests of Zimbabwe's economy or prospects for a brighter future.

But we should also take special note of the fact that, so far it is only three provinces (in Harare, it had to be Youths because there is no Executive in place, due to the infighting and the ordering of election re-runs for the Provincial structures).

What of the other seven?

Immense pressure is being brought to bear on them. Phone calls are being made and executive members in provinces are being urged to show their loyalty, not to Mugabe, but "to the party". Apparently endorsing Mugabe is the same thing as being loyal to the party.

Like in Hitler's Germany, ZANU PF is the Fuhrers party. The Leader Party. Questioning the leader is an act of self-expulsion and so on and so forth.

There are threats in ZANU PF that if Mugabe railroads his way into another term at the helm of the party, then the party will split in half.

Don't listen to them.

The party is full cowards, who refuse to let go of their comforts and hide behind the old man in order to bar the opposition from power.

They fear for their lives and their lifestyles and are willing to let the country go to the dogs so that they can continue to be kept by Mugabe in the style to which they are now accustomed.

At least now we know for certain whose language the Prime Minister is speaking. The Solution? We wrote off a long time ago and it serves no purpose to flog that dead horse. Everyone agrees he should go. It is the behaviour of those who should have an upper hand against him, those who should be influencing the course of events in the country, that puzzles us.

Following my article a few days ago in which I told you that Robert "The Solution" Mugabe had resolved to stand against the MDCs and other parties in forthcoming by-elections, Sokwanele have produced the most complete and the most detailed analysis of how the MDC has lost its majority in parliament.

ZANU PF has indeed lost seats due to deaths, three of them. In those three, Mugabe enjoys majorities of 2945, 6496 and 8975. Considering these margins, it is unlikely that ZANU PF will lose these seats, especially now when those voters see Tsvangirai paying homage and praise their leader, Mugabe, which is simply confirmation to them that their leader is all-powerful and can still "look after" them.

On the MDC side, the opposition party faces by-elections in 12 constituencies. Of these several are held by the MDC very thin margins: Lovemore Moyo, the Speaker, whose seat is now empty, won it with 474. This is definitely a margin Mugabe will reverse.

As for the rest of the MDC majorities, the most vulnerable are:

The Solution and his sidekick, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, launched a weekend of "National Healing" yesterday in Harare at their favourite 5 star hotel in Harare.

At the beginning of the occasion, to which Mavambo and Simba Makoni had originally been invited, Mugabe cracked a joke that had Tsvangirai rolling with laughter. As Mugabe cracked the joke, he looked sideways at Tsvangirai to gauge reaction.

He was mighty pleased to see his prime minister responding as he should, rolling with laughter.

"Ini ndatarisa mikova yese, ndava kutoziva pekutiza napo vakange voita zvekuConstitution." Which means: "I have scanned all the exits and I know which way to bolt if they repeat what they did at the Constitutional Conference."

It also emerged yesterday that Robert "The Solution" Mugabe had threatened not to attend the event yesterday if the invitation that had been sent to Simba Makoni was not withdrawn.

The invitation to Mavambo had been sent to Makoni by the Prime Minister's Office. Mugabe got wind of it on Thursday and made it clear that if the MKD leader attended, he would withdraw.

I understand Mugabe also explained that the presence of "riff-raff" (referring to smaller parties and civil society) was the reason he boycotted the opening of the Constitutional Conference in Harare last week. Mugabe was due to give a keynote speech at the Conference, which was temporarily suspended after it was disrupted by his favourite nephew (his sister's son, Patrick Zhuwao) and others.

The healing event itself yesterday, of course, was a mockery of the continued harassment of MDC MPs, officials and supporters.

Even as the leaders launched this thing, an MDC-T supporter from the Uzumba area was languishing in hospital, barely able to speak, having been beaten thoroughly in her village by ZANU PF supporters.

The ZANU PF supporters who did this are still abroad, walking freely in their area. No arrests, no reprisals, nothing.

Meantime, Roy Bennett, who is awaiting trial for plotting to "overthrow" The Solution (indispensable and irreplaceable, is what Tsvangirai also called Mugabe in an interview with the BBC last month), appled to go to South Africa on business, but was denied permission and the courts refused to give him his passport back.

To Mugabe, this is not about healing at all. What he wants is what he calls unity (think Dr Nkomo and ZAPU). He made this clear when he said the process he and Tsvangirai were launching yesterday started at Independence.

What he would like is for the MDC-T, MDC-M and all the other parties in Zimbabwe to buy into the ZANU PF way of running the country, to "unite" behind him because, as the founding president of Zimbabwe, he is above the law and above eveybody else.

There is no sincerity at all around this issue. Mugabe is not serious and Tsvangirai continues to indulge him.

So much for "Change you can trust" - the platform upon which Tsvangirai campaigned in March 2008, a campaign during which he also said if you voted for Makoni, he would give your votes to Mugabe.

It turns out that it is he, Tsvangirai, who has now sold ALL the votes you gave him to Mugabe and is now the president's Chief Public Relations Officer.

The more things change.........

I broke the story about the rebellion in the MDC Mutambara on this blog in April of this year in an article entitled Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara about to be fired.

There was a flurry of activity after that article and even media outside Zimbabwe called me to see if they could speak to my source.

A little while later, all hell broke loose, rallies were held at which Mutambara was denounced by Job Sikhala, Bhebhe and others as a sell-out.

Mutambara reacted swiftly. The MPs were suspended from the MDC-M (by the way, the official title of the so-called MDC-M is just MDC, they won the fight to retain the name MDC and it was Tsvangirai who decided to give his party his own surname and stamp it as personal property).

Apart from this, they have approached the High Court for relief. The MPs position is that the disciplinary hearing is "bogus" and that grassroots structures were not consulted as allegedly provided for in the MDC constitution.

You will recall that one of the MPs, Abednico Bhebhe, was originally given a cabinet post by Tsvangirai when the Prime Minister announced his line-up of Ministers for the GNU.

Mutambara protested and Bhebhe was withdrawn.

It is also said it was Bhebhe who led MDC MPs away from an agreed deal for Speaker of Parliament, where MDC MPs were urged to vote for the ZANU PF candidate and deny Lovemore Moyo the Speaker's Chair.

The appointment of Bhebhe by Tsvangirai at the time was a dead give-away, as it was reward for what Bhebhe had done for the MDC-T in parliament.

He is certain that should they lose the fight with their party, they will win any by-election called. It is almost certain that they would run as MDC-T candidates. Bhebhe believes the Tsvangirai party still has weight. Combine this with each MPs own personal popularity in their area, and Bhebhe believes it will all be a walk-over.

There is no denying that the whole thing is getting messy.