Why Mugabe And ZANU PF Are Happy About The SADC Summit Outcome
When the SADC Troika Heads of State meeting in Mozambique broke for lunch, Mugabe walked off with the other presidents (seen here during the lunch break with Jacob Zuma opf South Africa and Armando Guebuza of Mozambique (and Troika Chairman). Tsvangirai, as is shown in the article below this one, had to go off by himself. Mugabe's hand is basically strengthened by the SADC Troika position as I explain below
Harare, Zimbabwe, 7 November 2009
Patrick Chinamasa, one of Mugabe's biggest lapdogs and errand boys, was waxing lyrical yesterday upon his return from the SADC Troika Summit in Mozambique and says ZANU PF is happy indeed about the outcome of the Summit.
So is Mugabe, who is now in Sharm el Sheik for the China-Africa Summit.
They are very happy in ZANU PF because they now have Morgan Tsvangirai all to themselves. SADC leaders will not even mediate the talks that must now go on between the two main parties. They simply say the two must talk.
Apart from sanctions, Tsvangirai has no leverage over Mugabe. And these sanctions have failed before to move Mugabe. Maintaining them now is no guarantee that the dictator will give in to Tsvangirai's demands in order to get them lifted.
Already, Mugabe's office is sounding contemptuous:
"No set day deadlines were given by anyone in the Summit and no set deadlines would be entertained by anyone," said George Charamba, Mugabe's spokesman, yesterday.
Which means Mugabe intends to drag this out. Tsvangirai will have to make up his mind whether he will remain in government as the matter are dragged out or whether he does another "disengagement" stunt.
Repeating the "disengagement", however, is a non-starter, as even he knows after speaking to Jacob Zuma in Mozambique. Zuma told the Prime Minister that the outstanding issues can only be resolved by the Inclusive Government. If he walks out of it, then the MDC-T would be the ones seen as breaking the agreement and killing the Inclusive Government.
The leaders say he must stay in and continue talking with Mugabe. Mugabe says he he will not give in until his side is satisfied about their own complaints......it is tedious and as clear as day.
So, to get back to the essence of this analysis: Tsvangirai is back in the Lions' Den, unarmed. His back is against the wall still and as he has said repeatedly, there is no alternative to the GPA: that is because he knows that despite his bluster about wanting new elections, Mugabe will hold them only when he is good and ready, no matter what happens.
The holding of new elections is something that SADC will never ever order Mugabe to do.