The Ouster Of Tsvangirai - Shocking New Details

The Party of confusion and expediency: Having signed the Kariba Draft Constitution, the MDC, in an effort to to pander to populist opinion, is now effectively campaigning against itself, as with this poster at a rally in Bulawayo. What were they thinking when they signed the Kariba Draft. Did they not know its draconian provision for presidential powers? They did. So have truly had a change of heart or are simply trying to sway with the wind. The party can not leader and now it thinks that jettisoning its own leader will make it more appealing against a resurgent threat from civil society and parties like Simba Makoni's Mavambo which, in terms of the numbers of paid-up members, is now the largest in Zimbabwe.

Harare, Zimbabwe, 26 September 2009

In a shocking revelation, it has emerged that almost 95% of the two Councils of the MDC, The National Executive and the National Council, are now so anti-Morgan Tsvangirai that it is now virtually guaranteed the man will lose his job in the next few months.

This emerged in Bulawayo two weeks ago, when the party resolved to consult its structures and "the people" on whether they should continue in government with Robert Mugabe or not.

As I have explained before, this strange move (the MDC did not "consult" the people when it decided to go into government) was only arrived at as a compromise after Tsvangirai argued against pulling out, maintaining that staying in was the only option.

Some of the Executive members in Bulawayo say that he is only saying that because HE has run out of ideas on how to tackle Mugabe.

It is now emerging that, with the overwhelming majority of Executive and Council members in the MDC against continuing in government, they are confident that they will get the backing of the people to pull out.

The next step in the plot, which is being coordinated by four high-ranking MDC Ministers in the government and two senior officials who are not members of the cabinet, would be to confront Tsvangirai with "evidence" that the people want an end to this government.

If Tsvangirai insists that the government of convenience with Mugabe should continue, the rebels are planning on calling for a vote of no confidence in their leader.

With over 90% of the Council and Executive against continuing, the rebels are certain that they will have enough votes to remove Tsvangirai from the head of the party.

This is where it gets interesting.

Last night, one of the senior MDC ministers informed me that they are aware that Tsvangirai had struck a deal with Mugabe in the event of this happening.

And here's what it is: The Global Political Agreement is a highly personalised document. It does NOT call for the head of the MDC to be Prime Minister.

Instead, it specifies that the Office of Prime Minister "shall be occupied by Morgan Tsvangirai".

Tsvangirai will refuse to leave government. He will refuse to vacate the office of Prime Minister. There will be nothing that his party can do about this, because Mugabe and Tsvangirai will refer back to the GPA and say their positions are legal.

The ministers who support a pull-out are understood to have said they will then resign and leave government.

It is expected that, after this, the party itself, the MDC-T, will start campaigning amongst the people with a new leader it would have chosen. They expect Tsvangirai to continue insisting that he is the head of the MDC and that only Congress can remove him and not a vote of no confidence.

He will, according to strategists for the other side, most probably go ahead and organise rallies to rubbish the "rebels".

The "rebels" themselves are saying they also expect that their rallies and meetings will be disrupted and frustrated by the police, while those organised by Tsvangirai will go ahead without incident.

Tsvangirai is expected by these strategists to tell rally after rally that this was the reason he maintained that remaining in government is the only choice. He will point to the disruption of the other MDC meetings as evidence that remaining in government was the only way they could continue to widen democratic space even if Mugabe continues to refuse to fully implement the GPA.

But the Executive and Council members say that they are certain the people are on their side and that they will prevail at Congress, which they will seek to hold as soon as it becomes clear that Tsvangirai will not leave government and refuses to vacate the presidency of the MDC.

It is a sign of the times. The MDC is hopelessly confused and has, in the last two weeks or so, shown a shocking lack of principles.

The one glaring example is the issue of the Kariba Draft. In private meetings with Mugabe, Tsvangirai has been telling the dictator that he should be given a little bit more time to turn around his civil society partners.

MDC MPs in parliament are still clutching the Kariba Draft as the basis of the work of the Parliamentary Select Committee.

Furthermore, the Kariba Draft was signed by the MDC itself. They approved that draft.

But now, hypocritically, the party is displaying posters at its rallies denouncing the same document that they signed.

I am reminded of a saying:

"Here are my principles, if you don't like them, I can change them."

The MDC under Morgan Tsvangirai does not seem to know if it wants the Kariba Draft, which it signed with ZANU PF, or not.

Lacking any principles, they are now seeking to play to what they believe is popular opinion against the Kariba Draft. It is a play at populism, pure and simple. There is no reason advanced as to why they signed the Kariba Draft in the first place if they are now saying "No" to it.

But the MDC, because it has no ideology, no policies, no substance, will seek to shift with the wind, trying to follow what it thinks is popular opinion in order to retain popularity.

They would campaign against their own mothers if they thought this would win them votes.