Why don't people listen? Why would they rather believe their own little delusions that they give each other in beerhalls in order to lull each other into false comfort zones? While we have all been slumbering, dismissing the talk of a State of Emergency, Mugabe has been taking advantage of the disbelief to push ahead with that agenda and it is now complete. That state of Emergency is now ready to be implemented. Tendai Biti of the MDC now announces this imminent state of emergency as news? Readers of this blog knew this long back.
I also told you only four posts or so ago that the abductions are linked to the cooking up of the "insurgency" plot. Some people even left insulting messages here as if I was the one cooking up the stories against Jestina Mukoko and Gandi Mudzingwa. Yet the MDC now realises the truth of what I was telling them all along. But it may be too late. Read on.
It should not come as a shock to readers of this blog that Robert Mugabe has now presented the staged "mutiny" to SADC as part of the evidence against Morgan Tsvangirai and Ian Khama in the "insurgency" case.
Do you now realise the truth of my assertion some time ago on this blog that Mugabe told SADC that he could not give MDC Home Affairs because of the 'insurgency" issue? Did I not tell you that he had offered to give them Home Affairs in its totality, but only after the charges against them had been disproved by a SADC investigations team? Do you now understand why SADC was willing to tolerate Mugabe refusing to hand over total control of Home Affairs to the MDC?
Well, Patrick Chinamasa, speaking yesterday in Harare, confirmed to reporters that "compelling evidence has already been profferred..." to SADC. Chinamasa, using almost the exact words that I told you Mugabe would use to argue his case in front of SADC, said: " While they (MDC) were talking peace they have been preparing for war and insurgency."
The way thing stand now:
Mugabe has already presented the "mutiny" to SADC as part of his evidence against the MDC and president Khama. In the evidence document on the mutiny, Mugabe says, as I predicted to you, that this was done by soldiers who had been hired and paid to cause havoc while he was away so that the MDC insurgents would then join them and "bolster the mutinous ranks in order to overthrow the legitimately elected authority in Zimbabwe, which includes the legislative arm, in which the opposition has a majority. The evidence gathered from the confessions freely given by some of these soldiers is attached" I did not see this attached evidence in the copy that was shown to me, but then again, these were only photocopied pages from the document sent to SADC by Mugabe's government.
Mugabe claims that the "mutiny" was a last ditch effort by the MDC to pull off their plan even as it was being investigated by Harare and SADC. In the evidence, he offers to "make the soldiers available to SADC for their evidence." If anyone still doubts that the "mutiny" is linked to the "insurgency" issue, then they will not have long to wait for me to be proved right.
Chinamasa hinted at the link to the "mutiny" when he revealed that "former Defense Force personnel recruited for the escapade spilled the beans......"
The plan continues apace, yes, because, just like the rest of the world, SADC does not believe that Mugabe would stage his own "mutiny" because of the risk that things would get "out of hand". They appear to be buying this story. Morgan Tsvangirai has not helped matters also by staying out of the country, refusing to come back "without a passport." All of you who applauded the "mutiny" as real can not now turn around and say it is fake because it is being used as "compelling evidence" in the "insurgency case" against Tsvangirai and Khama.
Mugabe's evidence to SADC says the real reason Tsvangirai will not come back is because he knows his guilt and he is aware of the truth of ZANU PF's charges. In fact, so confident is Mugabe of his case, that he has told SADC that he is ready to continue with negotiations and start forming a government with the MDC. Tsvangirai must come back, Mugabe says, because the investigations are not being held by Zimbabwe, but by SADC. He should form a government with ZANU PF on SADC's terms while this case is being finalised and, sould SADC throw out the evidence, then Mugabe hands over Home Affairs completely. If not, then the law takes its course. That is Mugabe's talk to SADC.
Pretending to be reasonable, Mugabe told King Mswati at that aborted meeting in Swaziland that he does not rule out the fact that "renegades and hardliners" in Tsvangirai's party may have planned this without their leader's knowing. He said he does not blame Tsvangirai personally for now, until such time as evidence is presented to convince him otherwise. Back then, Tsvangirai was still in Zimbabwe, apparently oblivious to the charges and showing no signs of fleeing.
"Now, however," Mugabe says, "Mr Tsvangirai's flight out of the country and refusal to come back on flimsy grounds is leading us to believe that he may know more about this insurgency than we previously thought."
It only occurred to me when I read that bit of the evidence to SADC that Mugabe's tactic may been to move Tsvangirai away from the rest of the MDC leadership by charging all except Tsvangirai with insurgency plans. Tsvangirai would then have been stranded in power, without a party backing him since the MDC would have been decimated as a result of the charges of insurgency against everyone else.
As things stand now, Mugabe is pretending to be respectful of the SADC institution, saying as Chinamasa did in his remarks to reporters, that the matter now rests with SADC to make a decision. But Mugabe is in fact preparing for his next move:
THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS MUGABE IS PLANNING FOR, AND TWO OPTIONS:
The first is that if SADC accepts the "evidence" before them (something Mugabe is privately saying is "a foregone conclusion", then, while the MDC is still stunned by that decision and still refusing to accept participation in government without Home Affairs and what-not, Mugabe will call a snap election.
This snap election is already being prepared for intensely by ZANU PF. Since Thursday last week, ZANU PF' grassroots structures have been meeting at their provincial head offices to plan for it. In Harare, they are meeting at the ZANU PF Headquarters. These meeting are sometimes lasting until well past midnight, as was the case with the meeting held on Saturday from 2p.m. until about 1:30 in the morning. The meetings are purpotedly planning for the Congress this week, but they are also planning something much more sinister and deadly to the MDC.
Cell by cell, the officials are supposed to note who in their cell (basically each street, or two streets, are a cell in the ZANU PF grassroots structures) is a member of ZANU PF, who in that cell is an MDC member (and what their age and sex is) and who is "politically neutral". These lists must be with the ZANU PF head office by the beginning of January.
This may appear insignificant, but you really should pay attention to that little detail and here's why:
Once SADC accepts that there is (or was) indeed a case of insurgency planned by the MDC, then Mugabe plans to use that endorsement of his case to basically decimate the youth structures of the MDC all over the country. Is an insurgent branded on the forehead with the words: "Insurgent"?
So Mugabe will use these lists compiled by his cell and district personnel to arrest as many MDC youths and young men as he can get his hands on even as he launches his own election campaign early next year. It is likely that the MDC will be caught flat-footed. Tsvangirai will still be out of the country, afraid that he would be arrested if he comes back. Some of these arrested youths and young men, we can be sure, will be killed outright. Others will simply be detained throughout the election period.
These "youths", people aged between 18 and 45, are the bedrock of any election campaign, mobilising the electorate, providing security at rallies and generally acting as the pivot upon which the whole MDC campaign operation would turn. That would paralyse the MDC campaign.
And it will be done with the full knowledge that SADC accepts that there is an insurgency in place which must be dealt with, but at the same time, an election can not be held off because everyone realises that this is the only way out of the impasse (Tsvangirai called for new elections three weeks ago "if the negotiations fail". He can't now not accept the need for them.
The Second Option, Plan B for ZANU PF, is that the snap election will not be called and instead a full-blown state of emergency will be declared. This is if SADC refuses to sanction an election in which there are no UN observers, an event Mugabe calls unlikely, especially in the face of the "compelling evidence of the reality of the mutiny" (evidence that SADC, like most you, believe. Evidence that says the "mutiny was not staged by Mugabe but instigated by the MDC). The soldiers have already confessed their motivation, linked it to the MDC insurgency and "implicated" foreign countries, including western countries who may want to observe that election.
That state of emergency will, as I explained in the article on this site posted on December 01, allow Mugabe to rule without the MDC and to use it to impose martial law even for "economic crimes" with perhaps death sentences for forex dealers, gold and diamond smugglers and other "economic saboteurs".
This full-blown SoE should be contrasted with the virtual state of emergency that is currently operating in Zimbabwe, with activitsts being arrested and kept incommunicado, with no access to lawyers or relatives whatsoever. Mugabe is simply staying his hand on the State of Emergency to appear to respect the SADC institution. He says he is waiting for their decision, as Chinamasa told reporters yesterday. Mugabe will need the real SoE if he decides to rule for a couple years without parilament and without the MDC.
You remember me telling you about the staged "mutiny" which has now fizzled out, gone quiet, not publicly heard of ever since? You remember also what I told you about how this will be used to declare a state of emergency? Most people did not actually digest that story or did not read through it, which is why we are where we are today.
That analysis we provided here is proving correct, which means, Jess, you owe me $200, I have maintained my 100% accuracy rate.