• Zimbabwe: Mugabe's Advanced Plans For War

    Mugabe, seen here in conversation with the Director-General of the Secret Police (CIO), Happyton Bonyongwe and Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, Constantine Chiwenga

    An attack on Botswana by Robert Mugabe is looking increasingly likely as it emerges that the Zimbabwean dictator has put in place advanced plans for carrying out a long war from outside the borders of Zimbabwe.

    What is immediately clear is that, despite Mugabe's bluster, he is aware that an international force would be able to eject from Zimbabwe, if not capture him. So far, Mugabe has managed to get the backing of Angola and Namibia in his advanced plans.

    It is also emerging that some weapons belonging to the Zimbabwe Defence Forces are currently in Angola. These weapons are not in transit, but are actually being kept there in what sounds suspiciously like a stockpile.

    It is reliably understood that President Dos Santos has assured Mugabe that if things get bad in Zimbabwe, he would be able to use the route that runs from Angola to Namibia and into Zimbabwe through the Caprivi Strip to launch a counter-attack.

    There has been a flurry of activity between Luanda and Harare in the last four to five weeks, activities that even diplomats stationed in Harare are aware of but have not yet grasped. One assumption from sources within the ruling party is that the weapons that were never offloaded in South Africa earlier this year could be the ones being kept in Angola.

    Angola and Namibia are amongst the staunchest supporters of Zimbabwe within SADC. Angola itself is virtually a military state, with the generals in that country holding so much power that they are, in reality, the real power behind Dos Santos.

    Namibia has traditionally been an ally of Mugabe as a result of the close ties between the two countries dating back to Namibia fight for independence from South Africa.

    Mugabe is currently pursuing the option of leading a coalition into Botswana to destroy what he says are bases set up by the MDC in the southern African country. But there is also increasing fear within ZANU PF itself that the reason behind this pursuit of Botswana could be that country's diamond wealth. Several generals and politicians made a killing in the DRCongo through looting the mineral resources of that country in the confusion occasioned by Mugabe's "coalition" invading there to prop up Joseph Kabila Snr.

    Mugabe's plan apparently involves setting up camps and bases in the jungles of Angola and the forests of northern Namibia in the event that foreign forces invade Zimbabwe to topple him. The issue has been discussed three times so far by the Joint Operations Command (JOC), the military body that is essentially running Zimbabwe now in the absence of a properly constituted government. Already, there are ZANU PF militias being trained in Zimbabwe, locally known as Green Bombers from the colours of their uniforms.

    Mugabe is also understood to have spoken to the president of Mozambique to sound him out on that country's willingness to host "an exiled Zimbabwean army." The sounding out was done during the Zimbabwe military trip to Maputo last month in which they presented their "case" of insurgency against Botswana and the MDC. Mugabe is aware that an invasion of Botswana at whatever scale would immediately elicit a militar response from the West, designed to dislodge him not just from Botswana, but from the seat of government in Harare.

     Sources in ZANU PF and the military say that the exact quantities of Zimbabwean arms in Luanda are not known and could be considerably more than the shipment that was refused permission to offload in South Africa earlier this year.

    A team of Zimbabwe's military leaders, including at least two well-known generals, has been to Angola and Namibia in the last three weeks, with sources claiming that they had gone there to scout: look at locations and draw up plans that have to be submitted to Mugabe before the first of January 2009. This is only days away and I believe it shows just how advanced the contigency plans Mugabe has in place are.

    Mugabe's plans come at a time when he is increasingly belligerent, saying of the call by the international community for African countries to send troops into Zimbabwe, "I don't know if there is one of them who is brave enough to do that." I fully expect that, before the week is out, I should be able to give you even more details.

11 comments:

  1. Anonymous says:

    Surely this would be the dumbest move ever made by Bob. I think he is smarter than that and knows that it would spell the end of him.
    The west also have an interest in the Botswana diamonds so why would the stay idle.
    SADC has already said it did not believe there was any training of militia in Botswana so even they would find it hard to defend such a move.

  1. Denford says:

    That is also what I thought. First, I refer you to a previous post of mine here in which I tackled the "SADC said..." issue.

    The SOUTH AFRICAN president said.... That would be more accurate. As I pointed out then, the SADC chair is not a decision maker. The "investigations" into these banditry allegations are being controlled by Swaziland the current Chair of the Organ on Politics and Defence.

    It is they who will come up with a SADC position, to which the Chairman of SADC will bind himself.

    The composition of that team is crucial, yet the MDC did not seek to make noise about blantantly pro-Mugabe members who are packed into its ranks.

    It may seem like madness to the rest of us, but as I have been explaining here, there is a precedent: Mugabe led an invasion of the DRC when he was Chair of the Organ on Politics and Defence. Angola supported him and sent in an army. As did Namibia.

    Mugabe wants another coalition like that to tackle Botswana. If the Organ on Politics and Defence finally makes a report that says Mugabe's charges are even remotely true, then we are done for.

    You are not the first, Anon, to dismiss Mugabe's tricks and thereby underestimate him. Many did that with the plans for the State of Emergency, which I revealed here.

    Many doubted my report after Jestina Mukoko was taken, that she was being held in relation to banditry charges.

    I am a patient man but I believe that before long, people will be in consternation as Mugabe throws them yet another curve-ball, which will have them scrambling because they had not planned for it.

    All in good time.

  1. Anonymous says:

    I thought the idea behind sending SADC to Botswana was to preempt the use of Botswana as a staging post. In other words Zimbabwe wanted people on the ground in Bots to stop any nonsense and thus prevent invasion of Zimbabwe by outside forces. Zambia's attitude under the new man is totally different now and no other country will be used as a staging post.Why would he then give them an excuse to invade when so far he has the situation under control. If the Organ on Politics and Defence does come across these bases surely they will ask Botswana to close them under SADC supervision. What Bob is good at is brinksmanship, it is possible that he wants to face Khama down and get him to cough up Morgiza, the threat being that he will trigger a war

  1. Denford says:

    Of course you are right. Mugabe is very good at Brinkmanship. We all remember how he walked out of the Lancaster House talks in a huff, telling the Chairman, Lord Carrington to "go to hell".

    He was caught at Heathrow on the phone by Samora Machel who told him "the war is over."

    This is crucial because people who have worked with Mugabe since the 70s say that he has never forgiven Machel or himself for that. Mugabe wanted a Castro style triumphant march into Harare, where there would be no impediment to his vision of the country he was about to create.

    Some think that there is a hunger in him to finish that war properly.

    Still, I think a real invasion would be madness (Jess?. But then you have the mob mentality. What if these adventurers of the DRC, Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe decide that they can do it again. They got away with it in the Congo.

    And this time, a detail I deliberately left out of the report above says that the Putin has told Mugabe America and Britain would not dare touch Zimbabwe as long as Russia was still a country.

    Admittedly, he was saying this ONLY in relation to the Security Council votes on Zimbabwe, but could Mugabe also be banking on Putin's protection is he goes in as part of a coalition?

    Whatever the case, there is no doubt that the plans are in place. Perhaps what we can argue about is whether he is serious and would implement them.

  1. Anonymous says:

    These plans are merely contingency plans surely. At this stage in time he has everything under control. Morgiza is isolated, Botswana has chickened out and they will most likely cough up Morgiza soon. On their own Botswana stand no chance. The only temptation to go into Bots is to cleanse SADC of American army stations but at this stage I dont think he has enough people on his side. Yes Bob and his friends pushed back American proxy armies in DRC but then they had an excuse. South Africa remains his biggest threat but so far he has been careful not to give them an excuse despite efforts by others to stoke up the flames. The invasion only makes sense if there is something else that you know but you but cannot share with us on the forum.

  1. It surely makes interesting reading. You offer specifics to what I have always known. I have always known that Southern Africa is going to be very uncomfortable for White Supremacists. i.e I have always thought that the path of confrontation chosen by Britan in protecting the unfair privilege of whites' land ownership in Zimbabwe would lead to war. A war that would involve all of Southern Africa.

  1. Anonymous says:

    On the contrary I advocate war, we Zimbabweans must even trigger it!!, i bet you my life racists and worse their puppets have no chance. Its not about military might as the Taliban and Iraqis are proving as did the Vietnamese before them.For me it will be a perfect opportunity to give some back to direct benefactors of this neo colonial hegemony. They will be the first victims no excuses and big time, and alas then the land will be free from real racist tyranny.

    Pamberi nehondo!, its the final chapter that will enable south Africa and Namibia particularly and Africa in general to become truly independent not nominally as is the case now.

    Zimbabwe is the only country that has dared to be truly independent in the true sense of the word!

  1. Anonymous says:

    Thank you for the updates. Unfortunately Zimbabwe is no longer isolated and has become an international case therefore might I suggest conceptualizing events on the ground in their global context? This month recently saw a coordinated effort by the west in the form of shifting to “removing Mugabe”, an introduction of ZW onto UN agenda, and use of the usual suspects (Sentamu, Tutu, Odinga, Botswana) to call for military intervention. In other words we’ve been “sensitized” to the possibility of military invasion. Pan African movements have suddenly come out of their shells to speak against military invasion in ZW and some SADC countries taking unprecedented action. So although you are seeing Angola and Namibia acting on the war front, SA has even reversed their own conditions to help ZW on the day a US Rep told them of the shift. There will be another UN attempt on the 13th of January after SA has left the Security Council and as expected SADC has planned another go at the GNU from the 13-15th of January….now the UN can not pass any resolution while SADC is in session….or at least China/Russia will wait to take their cue from that meeting. After that Obama will take over and they will effect regime change within SADC frameworks. The next 30 days are crucial.

    Otherwise if the ZW Generals’ primary motive is looting, then surely DRC where their services are actually warranted presents a better opportunity than Botswana.

  1. Denford says:

    Okay guys, please pay attention. Too many of you are asking how going to Angola and Namibia will get Mugabe into Botswana.

    I should not have to explain this, but I will. You must think chronologically. Mugabe and his mates go into Botswana, loot, kill and the so on.

    Got that? Good.

    Then the West obviously comes in (AFTER the invasion, after the looting etc) and eject Mugabe and his mates from Botswana. MUGABE EXPECTS THIS.

    But, having been expelled from Botswana, the western powers will obviously also march into Harare and kick him out of there (he would most probably be long gone by then).

    So what do you expect he will do next? Fold his arms and go into retirement like Idi Amin?

    No, he will put himself up in Angola or Namibia or Mozambique (at this point it sounds like Moz is not keen). The aim here would be to get the country (Zimbabwe) back from "the puppet" who would have taken over after the invasion of the west.

    Angola and Namibia are bases for taking Zimbabwe back from the "imperialists", not for attacking Botswana.

    Does Mugabe really confuse people that easily, guys? Too many of you have been confused by him on this. Perhaps the key is Mugabe's nefarious talent for long-term planning, whereas, for most of us, if we try to think a month in advance, our heads hurt.

  1. Anonymous says:

    Perhaps you are not getting what is being said. Most US talk shows are zooming in on the fact that Bush and his friends are preempting Obama's foreign policy by firing up all the hotspots they want fixed (Obama is going to favor less intervention and more diplomacy) and Zimbabwe is one of them.

    In other words, Mugabe is on the cards of being taken out militarily! What you are seeing on that end is merely Mugabe preparing himself!

  1. Denford says:

    I do get it, you see. But I was rather surprised at the number of people who seemed not to understand why Mugabe would talk to Angola and Namibia to attack Botswana.

    The whole point of my comment above is simply to explain to the few who had not bothered to understand the simple fact that the Angola/Namibia angle is to do with RETAKING ZIMBABWE AFTER BOB IS OUSTED BY WESTERN FORCES, not to attack Botswana.

    He expects Botswana to fall like a deck of cards, attacked from ZIMBABWE, and then when he is himself dislodged, he would the go into neighbouring countries like it was the 70s all over again.

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