• A Reader's Extraordinary Thoughts and Analysis








    Below is a realpolitik explanation of the Zimbabwean conundrum as seen by a dispassionate observer, out in the USA. The tone is matter-of-fact, a simple statement of truth. The tone also says I really don't care whether you agree or not, here' how things are and you will soon realise the truth of this.

    The writer is based in the United States. Politics is not his profession, he happens to be banker. It goes to what I have always said, but he puts it as clearly and as impassionately as any good judge. We can take what he says or not. He does not live in Zimbabwe and is simply pointing out some very uncomfortable truths. 
    What he describes below is Realpolitik, a concept that is all but lost in Zimbabwe today. It deals with realities, not wishful thinking and wishes. It touches directly the dilema of Zimbabwe, that her people think  prolonging their own suffering is a way of punishing Mugabe.  Anyway,........


    "I think Zimbabwe's situation is a result of more complex issues than presented, but I largely agree with those who are highlighting the role of the army in African countries. Firstly Zapu/Zanu is in all practical purposes a full fledged army which converted into a civilian political party. Save for guys whose specific roles were PR, fundraising etc everyone was part of the army and since then its hard to know who is what.

     

    Secondly, Zanu/Zapu has maintained a leadership structure that was put in place in 1960 when Zapu was formed. If you look at the original Zapu line up which had Nkomo, Sithole, by 1980 Mugabe was only below Nkomo himself after all the other Zanu guys were dead. Thirdly, this "army" inherited a system that was designed to maintain colonial power, where the minority ruled the majority by force. I do not need to expound on what we inherited here. 

     

    I laid out 1,2, and 3 above to show that Mugabe has had enough time (over 40 years) to assert himself, right environment (civil wars) and tools (colonial security system) to maintain and streamline that power.  

     

    Now coming to inter-party politics, our real issue is simply transitioning of power. The power gap between Morgan and Zanu (inside Zimbabwe) is too wide and what we are now trying to do is like trying to shift power from a headmaster to a popular headboy just because a headboy won a popularity contest between the two. The GNU is not meant to address the issue of democracy but the gap of power. Another way to look at it is that had it been Makoni who had won the vote, it would not have mattered how ruthless Mugabe is and we certainly would not be talking of an army propping up anyone. Mugabe would be history because Makoni would have managed to dilute his power.

     

    Normally you have a transitional team/period to allow for usual de-institutionalization and equalization of power to take place first. Mugabe did not take power directly from Smith. Mandela had to initially deputize De Klerk.  That is what needs to take place in order for MDC to take over otherwise sole focus on reducing Mugabe's powers without increasing Tsvangirai's results in a proportional reduction where  Tsvangirai is not any more powerful than when he started from. Its why despite so many sanctions, so many powerful friends, Tsvangirai is still miles away from state house. What SADC leaders and even the Elders are saying to him is use the GNU to "gain" some of that power to ensure you get in next time. Problem now is that Tsvangirai thinks he has established friendship with the west which he wants to keep and hence he gives them a lot os decision making space…at the same time he doesn't realize that he is dealing with a crowd that genuinely loves war, has very little regard for diplomacy and is prone to blunders(Bush and crew). . Right now we have a mini cold war going on in Zimbabwe."

2 comments:

  1. Anonymous says:

    A very insightful analysis. " Another way to look at it is that had it been Makoni who had won the vote, it would not have mattered how ruthless Mugabe is and we certainly would not be talking of an army propping up anyone. Mugabe would be history because Makoni would have managed to dilute his power." It was precisely this point that Mutumwa Mawere unsuccessfully campaigned for Morgan to give way for Makoni in the run-up to the March 29 elections. Zimbos will forever pay the price for their short-sightedness.

  1. Anonymous says:

    I think you have just highlighted the problem that is prevelant in most successfull (technocrats) middle aged men in our country. Most lack of pragmatism.

    I mean why would Morgan agree to give way to him? Especially after being "convinced" by Mawere? And excatly where would Morgan be now had he given way?

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