Denford Magora's Zimbabwe Blog

Most had their furniture thrown out, the doors locked and their keys swallowed by ZANU PF supporters.

Targets were supporters of Ndabaningi Sithole and Abel Muzorewa. There was a pile of Ndonga (Mwenje) and Dzakutsaku t-shirt at the local dump the by morning.

Almost.

Well-organised and coordinated had begun in the rural areas immediately after word got out that Mugabe had been defeated. Most people even in his own party, were to traumatised to recall that, according to the new electoral rules insisted on by Tsvangirai during the negotiations that had started in 2005, failure by either candidate to garner 50% would trigger a run-off.

This is coming just two days after the Service Chiefs waded into the fray in support of the cornered Governor. This has clearly rattled the MDC-T. Tsvangirai, especially, seems so mortified of upsetting the Generals.

He told the New York Times this year, "We had won the election but did not have the support of the military" in justifying why he decided to play second-fiddle to the man he had defeated at elections.

"We can not unravel the tentacles of the State without Mugabe," Tsvangirai said.

There will be an excuse. Perhaps one is being forged now, to explain why they must remain at Mugabe's side even after they fail to dislodge Tomana.

So Gono is not such a big deal after all. Were these not the very issues that had the Prime Minister refusing to consummate his marriage to ZANU PF all through the last six months of 2008?

If they were so important, what has changed? Will the donors whom we are told want Gono gone in order to bring in money bring it in anyway? Just because the MDC-T says it's Ok to do so? You see his happening?

I don't.

Their argument rests on the blind faith that the strategy adopted by Tsvangirai, of going into government literally to hack away at the ZANU PF institution that is government, will triumph.

Others, like myself, look for signs as to whether this strategy is likely to come off. If it was, we should be seeing Tsvangirai outwit Mugabe on the peripheral issues that now seize them. That we are not seeing this, and only witness capitulation after capitulation from Tsvangirai, makes us less confident that he will indeed be able to work his way around the dictator.

What did I tell you?

I told you at the weekend that Gideon Gono, in putting his resignation to the president at his home in Helensvale, had said no ZANU PF leader was standing up for him even as he was vilified in public by the MDC-T.

He is said to have told the dictator. that he felt he was not wanted anymore.

On Monday, Mugabe duly oblidged and made a public statement (below) at the funeral of the Governor's brother. By now, if you have not been on Mars, you know what the old dictator said.

Chinamasa, betraying the fact that Mugabe has now briefed the so-called heavyweights in ZANU PF on the "resignation" of Saturday, addressed Gono saying, "You may have been wondering where all the people who wrote those letters to you are now." (Meaning the written authorisations that Gono says he has for ALL his actions from several Finance Ministers that he served under.)

Chinamasa said he was one such Finance Minister who gave Gono orders and anyone who keeps saying Gono must Go is also saying ZANU PF must go.

Being seen in this light by Mugabe is not part of the Prime Minister's strategy. Therefore, I can assure you that as surely as the sun will rise tomorrow, the PM is going to decide that it is simply too costly to his continued stay in government to push Mugabe too far on the issue of Gono and Tomana.

Still, it is strange that there is this much focus on a single man while the nation continues to burn (see three articles below). We have more substantive issues to deal with: the constitution, the repeal of AIPPA (which is still operational despite what the Prime Minister says) and POSA, a new Electoral Commission and many other things that would level the playing field in Zimbabwe.

If we are facing such spirited fights now over people, what more when it comes to a new Electoral Commission? Will Mugabe agree to disband his "retired military chakuti"-filled Electoral Commission and leave the appointments to a neutral recommending body?

Will he or won't he?

I rather doubt he will and I think the Prime Minister is fearing to "go there" because he knows just how bruising that battle is going to be. If he insists on staying in government after that (when it does happen), then he will be finished as a political force in Zimbabwe.

We watch and wait.

Mugabe, for the first time since the Inclusive Government was launched, publicly stated that the Governor is not going anywhere.

This comes hot on the heels of the resignation of the RBZ governor at the president's mansion in Helensvale. Gono, as I told in a previous article on this blog, complained to Mugabe on the day that no one from ZANU PF was standing up for him despite the fact that he was being "victimised for supporting them."

It appears Mugabe took this a direct challenge. It is also probable that, just like the rest of the people in ZANU PF, he has now heard of Gono's fear that Mugabe may well sacrifice him to Biti and Tsvangirai in return for getting much-needed aid from outside Zimbabwe.

This was a real fear in the Gono camp.

It appears the Governor got even more rattled when Morgan Tsvangirai announced that agreement had been reached on Governors, who would be laid off and paid off.

Gono thought he could also be forced into early retirement and be paid off compensation for cutting short his tenure. If Mugabe could let go of Governors, was anyone safe?

Mugabe, speaking at the funeral of Gono's brother today, Monday 25 April, used the occasion to state unequivocally that Gono was not going to be sacrificed, despite the calls from Western capitals, Bretton Wooods and other donors.

The dictator went further.

He also acknowledged that within the Inclusive Government, there are people who also want Gono gone. Although he did not name them, it is clear who he refers to.

After all, it was only last week that Prime Mnister Tsvangirai told a packed press conference at Munhumutapa Building that he and the other Principals would refer the matter to SADC.

In other words, Mugabe told the world today that whatever the Prime Minister says, it is of no consequence whatsoever. Like it or not, Mugabe, says, Gono will stay. SADC or no SADC. Which means there is little point to the whole pursuit of the matter.

But Gono now has public backing from his patron, who had maintained silence on the matter for months now. Gono can now wave that approval in the face of not only the Prime Minister but also the Finance Minister, who most probably will not be able to amend the RBZ Act as he wishes and will be blocked first in parliament and then at the stage of signing into law by Mugabe, should it get that far.

Now, you may also hear from Mugabe's cronies and ministers. They may start also publicly defending the Governor.

Somehow, I think it unlikely because Mugabe is running a very tight ship. He has told his Politburo that "it is me they are after. Let me deal with them." Which means dispute resolutions or positions will only be communicated once the President says so.

This is also why, through all of this nonsense, we never heard from ZANU PF in public. They are under orders to keep silent. And when people like George Charamba speak, it is with feigned ignorance of what is taking place in the negotiations. They are under orders to appear respectful at all times.

This is also the very reason why that letter said to be from Gono, is a fake. It would be insubordinate of him to appeal to the Prime Minister and smear Tendai Biti like that. The MDC would have found something to take to Mugabe.

Still, we know now that Gono stays and there's an end to the matter.

This is happening while, as you can see at the very top of these photos, treated water is left to gush out of pipes all over the city. I took these pictures today and the ones of the treated water gushing away were all taken within one block between Eastgate and Parliament in Harare.

Dr Makoni, Mrs Makoni and thousands of Mavambo supporters gave him a fitting send-off on Saturday at his rural home in Rusape, where he was laid to rest.

The headman and chiefs from the area also attended.

Speaking at the funeral, Dr Makoni (who received a tumultous welcome) bemoaned the continued suffering of the people of Zimbabwe, saying the country is not working and that if it was working, George would perhaps not even have gone to South Africa, because business would be alright in Zimbabwe.

Dr Makoni also bemoaned the collapse of the health and edcucation infrastructure in Zimbabwe, saying "our kids today are getting a worse education than ever before."

He assured the gathering, which included countless people in Mavambo T-shirts, dancing and singing, (we ran out of T-shirts at the event as people kept clamouring for them) that the Mavambo party would be launched very soon to give people a true alternative to the moribund Government of National Unity.

Here's yet another scoop from this blog! Following hot on the heels of my scoop that the letter supposedly written by Gono was in fact written by George Charamba and is designed simply to expose the fact that the MDC-T "has done nothing since assuming power)

Gideon Gono, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor, handed a letter of resignation on Saturday morning to dictator Robert Mugabe just as he was about to leave for his rural home in Zvimba from his Helensvale home.

Gono lives just up the road from Mugabe in the posh area and delivered the letter personally to Mugabe.

In a move that shows just who it is that is scuppering the Global Political Agreement, Mugabe is said to have refused to accept the resignation.

Gono, however, was insistent that no ZANU PF minister is standing up for him, not one is fighting from his corner except President Mugabe himself.

But the dictator, who has told Gono that he must hold his horses because the fight here is between the dictator and Tsvangirai, was apparently dismissive of Gono's move.

Gono was still insisting yesterday that his only option is to walk, claiming that, in doing so, he is going to show ZANU PF ministers and officials, whom he claims benefitted from his largesse, that they would also be exposed in the process.

For some time now, Gono has been bitter that the whole of ZANU PF has remained silent while he is hung out to dry by Biti.

He has not been sure whether Mugabe will hold fast in his refusal to let him go. My own assessment of his latest move is that it is designed specifically to test just how steadfast Mugabe is in his support. People close to the Governor say if he gets the impression that Mugabe is indeed willing to let the GNU fail on account of the Gono and Tomana issue, the governor could well be persuaded that he has a future.

Gono also told the president that he has essentially been made a lame-duck Governor by Tendai Biti, who has taken away pretty much all of the functions that used to give the Central Bank a source of income.

The Reserve Bank is now struggling to fund its own operations, with Biti insisting that the 6000 people that Gono has hired at the Central Bank are not needed (he calls them a parallel government) and refusing to fund their salaries. So, even as I write, RBZ staff are not being paid their salaries because Gono's coffers are dry.

You will recall that I told you soon after Biti's budget statement that the Finance minister and the MDC were vowing that, within six months, Gono will have to come to Treasury (Finance Ministry) to ask for funds to keep the central bank going.

What Gono fears, though, is to wake up one day and find that Mugabe has struck a deal over him with Tsvangirai.

The events of Saturday seem to show that Mugabe is unwilling to let his personal banker go.

Tsvangirai himself, who told the Financial Times at Jacob Zuma's inauguration that "it is not helpful to jump on the Gideon Gono bandwagon", will need to refer the matter to SADC if he is keen on getting the man to go.

As things stand, Tendai Biti and others are of the opinion that Tsvangirai will not do this, hiding instead behind the anthem that ALL principals need to AGREE to refer the matter to SADC for the matter to be referred there.

You will notice that Biti has now resorted to making moves on the legislative front to curtail and reorganise the Reserve Bank. This he is doing because he has lost hope that Gono will indeed go. Advice given to Biti by the IMF during recent consultations will inform the legal measures Biti will take to try and bolster confidence in the RBZ amongst donors and Bretton Woods institutions.

Still, it appears that Gono has now reached a stage where he is willing to walk unless ZANU PF becomes more vocal in supporting his continued stay at the Central Bank.

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai has confirmed that Mugabe's Permanent Secretarial appointments are not null and void and have been confirmed in their posts.

In a move certain to anger  Tendai Biti and the MDC-T National Council, Morgan Tsvangirai has decided to take the route of quietly defeating his Council's resolution to take the dispute over jobs for the boys to SADC.

Zimbabwe's dictator, Robert Mugabe and his security chiefs have refused to disband JOC (the Joint Operations Command, which was at the forefront of strategising Mugabe's retention of power in the chaotic aftermath of the March elections in 2008).

The commenting system on the Blogger platform, who host this blog, has been misbehaving for some days now and I commiserate with all who have called and emailed to say you can not leave your comments.

I am sure the blog platform are aware of this glitch and are fixing it, so we should be back to normal soon.

The explanation is found in the story below this one, the story in which I tell you about Mugabe's ZANU PF publicly humilating the MDC by revealing that:

The MDC-T party has won over its president, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai in the argument over outstanding issues.

Morgan Tsvangirai himself told a rally at Macheke Stadium in Masvingo that he is "bound" by the decision of his party to take the matter to SADC and the African Union.

Tsvangirai knows he can not get any joy from SADC and the African Union and he therefore preferred to deal internally with Mugabe, cajoling the reluctant dictator by incrementally currying his favour.

Hence the politeness in private and public and so on.

By saying the government can not function under the current circumstances, the MDC-T are basically saying this is no government. That the present state of affairs mean the death of the GNU (or Coalition government or whatever is in fashion today).

These are the facts of the matter. And facts are stubborn.

So now the country will be put on autopilot, left to simmer in its own juices on the back burner while the two main parties to the Agreement fight over what should have been fought over before the document was signed.

As Tsvangirai is well aware, he will not win the battle at SADC or the African Union. 

Like I told you earlier this month, SADC still views Tsvangirai as not only an outsider but also an impostor. It is highly unlikely that they will satisfy his demands. They can not. If Mugabe does not want, then he does not want.

It would be easier and much less painful for them to simply walk away now. They still have some vestige of pride. Later, it will be much more different.

But their supporters, who were against the GNU before Tsvangirai agreed to it, were now at the forefront of supporting the decision to stay in. Whatever will they do now?

I could not credit this when I first heard it, but I am now forced to concede that it is true after the Independent confirmed it today.

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai was effectively barred from entering the State House on Monday for a banquet being held in honour of the President of North Korea, who was in the country to "talk nuclear" with Robert Mugabe.

James Maridadi, MT's spokesman, says the one of the vehicles in the Zimbabwean Prime Minister's convoy was refused entry into State House grounds by the Presidential Guard.

Tsvangirai had been invited by Mugabe.

The Prime Minister was reduced to arguing with Gatekeepers for his delegation to be allowed in, but they would have none of it.

In the end, the whole convoy, including the Prime Minister himself, turned around and drove off.

It makes one wonder: How can the Prime Minister of Zimbabwe, who recently said "there is nothing Mugabe does without my approval" - effectively equating himself to the dictator - be ordered around by the President's bodyguards?

How much power does he have, really, if he can be so humiliated by men who should be saluting him?

But, as most Zimbabweans know, the President's Praetorian Guard is a law unto itself. Countless motorists have been bludgeoned and hauled off to police or Military Intelligence cells for not getting out of the way of the Presidential convoy fast enough.

And bad behaviour seems to be the order of the day in the Mugabe family as well. Taxi drivers at Fife Avenue Shopping Centre now know to flee when they see Sabina Mugabe approach.

Apparently, quite apart from the fact that, once the hired taxi arrives at State House and the groceries are offloaded, the President's sister is in the habit of paying the drivers in Zimbabwe dollars, at a rate she thinks is fair, the drivers, on trying to exit, are then stopped, searched and questioned on what they were doing inside and how they got in.

Mugabe thinks there is nothing amisss about this at all, saying, for instance, after Tsvangirai was beaten up by the police:

"When the police say "move", you move".

The Prime Minister is putting this down to "residual elements" who refuse to acknowledge that there is "a new force in town, the Office of the Prime Minister."

It appears the residual elements have every intention of remaining residual.

(Blogger will not load photos, so I could not attach one here, but will do when I can)

Kim Yong Sam, seen here with Jacob Zuma on 10 May, two days before he met Mugabe as head of the North Korean delegation in Zimbabwe, is the de facto Head of State in North Korea, although he is officially the 2nd in Command to Kim Jong Ill. His delegation included representatives of "power and energy" companies as well as a Korea Defence Force Colonel. A Barter deal is in the offing, involving uranium in exchange for rehabilitation of our crumbling electricity infrastructure and expansion of current power stations.

Robert has apparently been talking nuclear power with North Korea.

The dictator in Zimbabwe met with a delegation from the Kim Jong Ill regime and representatives of DPRK companies.

The delegation was led Kim Yong Nam, who is the 2nd in Command in North Korea after Kim Jong Ill. In fact, he is widely regarded as the de facto Head of State in that Communist country.

So this was high-powered delegation indeed and it was coming straight from South Africa, where the North Korean de-facto Head of State met with Jacob Zuma.

This is a tour headed by the Head of State. They don't come much more high-powered than that.

Kim Yong Nam is the one who meets goes on foreign trips, meeting with the Russians, South Koreans and so on in the last two months. Kim Jong Ill himself has only ventured as far as China, where he went when his country was in the grips of famine. He came back with trainloads of grain and other aid from the Chinese.

But we are getting carried away.

The businesses represented in the delegation are interesting to say the least.

Mugabe was not accompanied by his Prime Minister when he met the delegation. In fact, he cancelled a meeting called to discuss essentially the fate of his Coalition government with Tsvangirai (the outstanding issues meeting) in order to meet with the North Koreans.

Although he attended the launch of STERP by Tendai Biti, he absented himself yesterday at the launch of "the next hundred days" plan of the MDC-PF government.

Amongst those in the North Korean delegation were:

There were also Civil Engineers and Construction experts in the delegation.

Mugabe is quoted by the Herald as telling the Nuclear-missile-launching North Koreans that Zimbabwe has plenty of minerals in the ground. It only needs appropriate technology to get them from under there. There is more goldfields waiting to be explored than had been found so far, he told them.

The presence of military officers in the delegation should be duly noted.

Kim Jong Ill is scouting around for a place where he can get even more uranium for his game of chicken with the United States. He has already defiantly launched a test missile and has managed to get away with it.

He only gets bolder.

Mugabe, for his part is now desperate to restore the fortunes of Zimbabwe so that he does not have to leave the stage in disgrace. Seeing the light at the end of the Bretton Woods tunnel extinguished, he is now going out on a limb and gambling with one of the most sought-after and dangerous minerals known to man - uranium- which makes nuclear bombs, which can reduce London to ashes in a matter of seconds.

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

If this was a transparent democracy, we would ask for a transcript of the closed-door meetings Mugabe had with the his visitors. As it is, we have to make do with the words of those who have been briefed about this.

It could be scaremongering. But I doubt it.

Like I said, these are desperate times for the MDC-PF government. Desperate measures are called for.

And did you hear? They gave Mugabe some High Rank in the sport of Taekwando, which is a form of wrestling. The sport is catching on fast in the world. My son goes to classes of this sport!!

Mugabe? Wrestling?

We thought we had seen it all!

The launch of Mavambo as a political party, which had been agreed by the Party Formation Steering Committee to be set for today, 13 April 2009, has now been put back.

At a meeting of Conveners (Heads of Department) last Saturday, held at the Mavambo offices in Harare, the Conveners asked for more time to finalise plans for the launch ceremony in their own areas. Because the launch ceremony can only be held once and the new party wants to launch with a huge bang, they felt that they would rather delay than rush headlong into the whole affair.

So, later this month, detailed plans for the launch ceremony itself, as well as the logistics, will be finalised at a retreat of the Party Formation Steering Committee, which will also be attended by what Mavambo structures are there in the Diaspora (South Africa and Botswana are particularly active at the moment), at a secret location here in Zimbabwe.

After that, the definitive announcement will be made as to the venue and the logistics in place to get people to the launch venue.

Interest is huge.

Since Monday, when people read in a newspaper coming out of London that the party would be launched today, Mavambo offices have been overwhelmed with people seeking to become members.

The party leadership has now been forced to put extra at the offices in order to handle the upsurge in numbers. Staff members who had been eagerly giving out their mobile numbers are now regretting this.

I found one sitting on the carpet this morning, saying SMS messages he has been receiving have simply overwhelmed him!!

Meantime, it appears the MDC-T especially is quite worried about this. I and two other colleagues got phone calls from senior MDC-T officials yesterday asking if Makoni, "is going to launch a comeback"!

As if he ever went away!!

They were there at the ZCTU celebrations (addressed by Tsvangirai) on May 1, and they saw the reception that Dr Makoni got from the people.

For those who missed it, when he was introduced by Mr Chibhebhe, the whole stadium went wild with cheering and it would not stop.

Sitting in the VIP tent right in the middle of the ground, it was rather difficult for Dr Makoni to hear what was being shouted by the crowd.

Eventually, Mr Chibhebhe announced through the Public Address system: "Zvanzi ngavabude mutende tivaone...." - meaning "the crowd says he should come out of the tent because want to see him."

He came out and waved to the cheering crowd.

(This is the main reason Morgan Tsvangirai, in his speech afterwards, specifically told the crowd that Mavambo has been invited to take part in the Constitution-making process. The fact of the matter is that we have received no such invitation.)

So the man remains popular and is perhaps now the sole hope people have that things could change in this country, hence the cheering.

The country is hungry and ripe for change, it appears, and Mavambo wants to ensure that they emerge into the sunlight in a fitting manner.

This blog will update you as soon as the retreat is done and the new, bigger venue and dates are set.

He he he he.

"All outstading issues have been resolved," Prime Minister Tsvangirai said at the weekend.

An announcement was allegedly to be made at the cabinet meeting today, Tuesday. And then the PM was going to tell parliament in a special address what these things agreed on are.

Mugabe and ZANU PF today revealed just how far away from a resolution of these issues we are. They used The Herald to do this.

The State says it "understands" that Ambassdors are off-limits to Tsvangirai. They claim that highly placed sources in government told them ambassadors are career diplomats, professional types who are not bound by any political agreement.

These professional types who were drafted into the civil service through ZANU PF structures, mind you. Otherwise, we mus ask if you have ever seen an ad in the paper or even an internal advert within the Civil Service asking for applications for these career posts?

If they were career posts, then this what you do to fill them.

This same argument, we can be certain, is also being put forward with regards the Permanent Secretaries. (They were "null and void", these permanent secretaries, according to Tsvangirai. And that almost three months ago.)

Today, we were told that the meeting to discuss outstanding issues has been moved to tomorrow.

Twist and Shout time.

Slowly, the naton is witnessing the spectatcle of the MDC-T swinging in the wind, hung from the tallest tree in the land: The Prime Ministerial Office.

Of course, the PM has said that there is no deadline to Mugabe on this matter. Effectively, he is aware that he has to play Mugabe's game. And Mugabe says "no one threatens me." The PM says "Yes, Baba."

While these "issues" are still outstanding, perhaps the Prime Minister can add another outstanding issue to the ones already on the table. This being the recent sentencing of an MDC Member of Parliament to ten months in prison WITH HARD LABOUR (that was a particularly gratuitous act, an act not of justice but vengeance).

General Chiwengwa did warn them, as I told you on this blog in the article "General Chiwengwa Now Issuing Political Orders".

The MDC-T likes to talk tough but then not back that with any action. This works very well with empty heads. They tend to mistake the tough talk for tough action.

"Null and Void!" And they cheer.

"Mugabe Must Go." And they cheer and repeat.
Well, The Prime Minister at the weekend changed this one and shouted, "Mugabe Must Stay!"

Still they cheered!!

"Ultimatum!" Again we hear cheers. But Monday has come and gone. The PM has said there is no deadline. Since he is Mugabe's spokesman now, (He does all the talking on behalf of the MDC-PF government while Mugabe remains quiet), this means that his views (government and not party views) carry the day.

Come Wednesday, to when will they postpone the next meeting of the Principals?

To next week, most likely. Just so Mugabe can show the MDC-T that its National Council ultimatum means nothing to him. He will prevaricate until the Council meets on Sunday. He is enjoying watching Tendai Biti and company twist and shout.

I can tell you he is desperately hoping that, at that National Council meeting, they will pick up their toys and decide to go and play by themselves.

The profiteering in Zimbabwe has reached alarming levels, I tell you.

This last week, I received a foreign cheque in US dollars and duly went to Barclays Bank to deposit it in my new foreign currency account, which they had helpfully automatically opened for me because I am a long-standing customer.

Imagine my shock on Monday when my branch called me to tell me that bank charges for clearing this cheque were US$109.

I know that in Kenya, where I have made enquiries, the very same cheque, from the very same company, is cleared for US$20. In South Africa, the charges are even less than that.

Meantime, instead of supervising Zimbabwean banks that are doing this, Gideon Gono is busy fighting political battles? Can he explain how it is that the very same cheque, cleared by a neighbouring country through the very same process and the very same international bank, costs five times less in a neighbouring country than it does in Zimbabwe?

The problem goes back to politics. The MDC-T president is supposed to be in charge of policy formulation and implementation.

Are these the sort of policies he is implementing?

Does he realise that these policies make Zimbabwe an unattractive destination for investment? Is he willing (or even able) to do anything about this?

This sort of thing is simply unacceptable for a country that is trying to attract investment in this tough global environment.

But the problem is that the MDC-T believes that it is special and the world should genuflect before them without regard to any other factors.

Basic commodities are more affordable now in Zimbabwe, but only because Mugabe scrapped duty on imports of these. Local businesses are up in arms, because they prefer to have a captive market, where they can charge as they see fit, milking helpless and defenceless workers with punitive prices.

Tsvangirai and the MDC appear willing to accommodate local business demands for protectionism.

It would be disastrous to do so.

Our local businesses live beyond their means and they hanker for the old days, when they made super profits even in US dollar terms. This should not be allowed.

Ever.

It would kill Zimbabwe.

And this Inclusive Government can forget about attracting tourists here in 2010 with these sorts of skewed pricing policies. Why should they come here to pay through the nose for a crumbling infrastructure and abysmal service?

As usual, you can expect that none of this will change.

The focus at the moment is wrong: the focus is power. Can anyone tell me of a single initiative this inclusive government has made since it was formed?

Just one.

President Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe's dictator, looks mighty pleased as he acknowledges the roar (and chanting of his name) from the crowd gathered as he arrives for Jacob Zuma's inauguration at Union Buildings in Pretoria. With him is Grace and behind them but out of this photo, Misheck Sibanda, Secretary to President and Cabinet

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai has dismissed the ultimatum issued by his own Secretary General and Minister of Finance, Tendai Biti, saying "it is not helpful to jump on the Gideon Gono bandwagon."

Speaking to the Financial Times of London's Richard Lapper and Tom Burgis in South Africa where he was attending the inauguration of Jacob Zuma as president of South Africa, Tsvangirai pointedly said, "There is no deadline."

You will recall that in my article, "MDC-T Poised To Fire Tsvangirai", I told you that the Prime Minister had refused to attend the press conference called by Biti on Wednesday, during which the MDC-T Secretary General put down the ultimatum to Tsvangirai and Mugabe.

I also told you why.

It is now clear that there are serious disagreements within the MDC-T on the way forward, with some MPs (nine identified so far) calling into question the Prime Minister's motivation in staying in government.

There are also strong forces within the MDC-T itself who feel that Tsvangirai is not being grateful enough to them for all that they have done for the party. He is failing to stand up for them. Failing, for instance, to stand up to Mugabe on behalf of the MDC-T Deputy Minister of Agriculture-designate, Roy Bennet, despite his gigantic efforts over the years in fundraising for the opposition party.

Failing, also, to stand up to Mugabe on behalf of Nelson Chamisa, who is now in charge of a shell of a ministry.

But the significance of the Prime Minister's statement to the FT lies in the fact that, although we all know an ultimatum when we see or hear one, and although Biti was clear that his was an ultimatum, Tsvangirai says the Secretary General does not know what he talking about.

He openly calls Biti's fight to clean up the Reserve Bank in order to get donor money into government coffers "the Gideon Gono bandwagon."

As for Biti's threat that failure to resolve "outstanding issues" by Monday 11 May 2009 will result in the matter being referred to the MDC-T National Council, Tsvangirai also dismisses that as so much hot air, saying:

"We had to express our frustration."

In other words, he is saying Tendai Biti was simply blowing off some steam and his statement should not be take seriously at all.

I wonder how the Secretary General, who is emerging as the strongest critic of the Prime Minister within the party, will take this.

Still, on the matter of the Unity Government (or Coalition Government or whatever it is they are calling it this week), it is clear from all of Tsvangirai's statements in South Africa that he has accepted that there is no way out.

With MDC activists, including Gandi Mudzingwa still behind bars and scores of others persecuted, the Prime Minister boldly told three separate audiences at the weekend that the GNU is "on the right track."

I wonder if Gandi Mudzingwa agrees with him. What about Jestina Mukoko? Or the other 17 people charges with her?

I wonder if Nelson Chamisa, who threatened to resign centuries ago but has still not gone anywhere, agrees with him?

What about Roy Bennet?

And what about the people themselves, Zimbabweans who are still plagued by cholera (which the Prime Minister, aping Mugabe, now says has "disappeared"), with no water in their taps, with boreholes being drilled at our University of Zimbabwe?

Do they agree that the GNU is on the right track?

What about the all-important donors? The IMF, World Bank, British, Americans and others who, if things were as rosy as the Prime Minister would want us to believe, should be falling over each other to offer us the balance of payment support we need to get this country working again?

The right track?

The Prime Minister should have his head examined.

Still, he has now cut his Secretary General down to size in full view of the world. What remains to be seen is whether Biti can marshal enough forces on his side at the National Council, set to meet on November 17.

What, I wonder, is the point of the meeting, seeing as the President of the MDC-T himself says there is no deadline. They will be meeting to do what, in light of the fact that the Prime Minister says they should not pay attention to the "frustration" of Tendai Biti?

Nine MDC-T members of parliament, including three cabinet ministers, have taken a hard line against their own leader Morgan Tsvangirai, giving him until Monday to confront Mugabe and get the "outstanding issues" resolved. The nine consolidated their position on Tuesday night, in the wake of Mugabe's government sending MDC-T activists back to jail.

Mugabe is aware of the moves against Tsvangirai within the MDC-T and it said he is more comfortable dealing with Tsvangirai, whom he feels he can manipulate and bully. This was the reason why he scrambled to strengthen the Prime Minister's hand by having the activists released on bail yesterday.

THe dictator feels Tsvangirai is easier to deal with than, say Biti or any other unknown quantity that may emerge from the MDC-T as a new leader.

In an escalation of the issue and an indication of how serious the rebels in MDC-T are, two senior members of the party, claiming to be acting on behalf of what they call "the majority of the National Council" (the supreme decision-making body in the MDC-T), approached a senior Zimbabwean politician yesterday (Wednesday) asking if he would be interested in leading the opposition party in the event of the MDC-T deciding to recall Tsvangirai.

This move dovetails with the statement issued by the firebrand MDC-T Secretary-General and Zimbabwe Coalition government Finance Minister, Tendai Biti on Wednesday, in which he complained of the outstanding issues that Tsvangirai and Mugabe have failed to resolve.

There is increasing frustration within the MDC-T with their leader because of what a member of staff the Prime Minister's office has called his "mellowing".

For instance, Tsvangirai's political strategist (PM's Office) has consistently told his boss that he is mistaken to buy Mugabe's excuses that there are "hardliners" in ZANU PF and the military bent on destroying the Unity Government. He is of the opinion that it is Mugabe himself who directing events, a position that this blog has consistently taken.

When Tendai Biti tabled a motion to investigate Gideon Gono during a recent cabinet meeting, for instance, he expected Tsvangirai to back him up. But the Prime Minister remained silent as Biti and Mutambara, backed by some ZANU PF ministers, pressed Mugabe on the matter.

Biti subsequently confronted Tsvangirai after that cabinet meeting to ask why his Prime Minister had "hung him out to dry".

The Prime Minister is said to have said that he preferred to raise these issues with Mugabe in the Monday meetings they hold together in order for Tsvangirai to report to Mugabe on government business.

The Finance Minister then retorted that the Monday meetings were failing to have an impact on the attitude of Mugabe and ZANU PF towards MDC-T in government.

This was just one in a long line of frustrations the senior leadership of the opposition party have had with their president.

It is reliably understood that Tsvangirai was against the press conference that Tendai Biti called on Wednesday. It was at that press conference that Biti announced his was giving an ultimatum to Tsvangirai, Mugabe and Mutambara to resolve outstanding issues by Monday.

On Monday, Tsvangirai reports to Mugabe as per their weekly routine and the leadership of the MDC-T will be waiting to hear from the Prime Minister what would have transpired.

If Tsvangirai fails to resolve matters in that meeting, Biti says the matter will be referred back to the National Council for deliberations on the way forward. Privately, it is now clear that the next option being considered is the recalling of Tsvangirai from the leadership.

During his Wednesday press conference, Biti repeated that pulling out of government is out of the question.

There is a problem with this.

The Global Political Agreement is a very personalised document. It specifies that the office of Prime Minister shall be occupied by Morgan Tsvangirai and that of president will be occupied by Robert Mugabe.

Recalling Tsvangirai would essentially mean the death of the GNU, which is a contradiction of Biti's insistence that his party will not pull out of the GNU. The MDC-T can only recall Tsvangirai from the leadership of the MDC-T, and not from the Prime Ministerial post.

But if Tsvangirai refused to vacate the PM office, who would he be representing there if his own party has recalled him and elected someone else to be their president?

It is a prickly pear.

And it strengthens Tsvangirai's argument. When he refused to be part of the "issuing of the ultimatum" yesterday, he said it was unwise to give yet another ultimatum which, if not met, would result in the MDC not doing anything but continuing in government. He said he feared the party would not be taken seriously anymore if it kept issuing these deadlines and not acting when the deadlines come up.

Personally, I do not see how the rebels can triumph against Tsvangirai. Although they claim to have the majority of the National Council on their side, this is no guarantee that they will succeed.

Tsvangirai has shown before he is capable of going against the entire National Council like he did during the split with Welshman Ncube, Gift Chimanikire, Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga and others, which resulted in the split that saw the formation of the group now led by Arthur Mutambara.

Let's wait and see. We don't have long to wait. This coming Monday, obviously, Tsvangirai will fail yet again to have these issues resolved by Mugabe and then the matter will be taken by the MDC-T to the Council on 17 May.

The MDC-T coffers are are fast running dry.

Their donors, who kept the party going through huge injections of money (US$10 million in the first six months of 2008 alone) have all fled. Their reluctance to fund the opposition coincided with the party's decision to go into an unholy marriage with Mugabe in the Coalition government.

In a moment of pique and frustration, the Prime Minister, speaking to some of his staff, including a young man who acts as the political strategist in his office, blurted out yesterday after the cabinet meeting that "this is not worth it."

Tsvangirai's frustration has to do with Mugabe's continued open contempt for him, even as the Prime Minister is told by the dictator that he has to respect him (which the Prime Minister has duly done, referring to the dictator as "Father", even in their private one-on-one Monday meetings, correcting journalists at press conferences when they do not use the Presidential title in referring to Mugabe etc).

But it is also driven by the increasing complaints from Harvest House where, because donors have fled, the party coffers are running dry, staff are being paid paltry wages (unlike the heydays of opposition when the party was so awash with money that it staff were buying houses in low-density areas as the economy melted).

The outburst by Tsvangirai has been latched onto by Nelson Chamisa, the MDC-T spokesman whose own ministry has been gutted like a dead fish by Mugabe. Chamisa then rashly made it known that his party was "mulling pulling out of the GNU."

This rash leak by Chamisa is simply sending up the hopes of MDC-T supporters who are now up the creek without a paddle, frustrated and bewildered by their leader's mellowing and open support for the dictator Mugabe.

They all know that there is no strategy for getting around ZANU PF in government. They all know that, within the corridors of Munhumutapa Building, the presidential and Prime Ministerial office complex, the MDC-T is simply walking around twiddling its thumbs, whistling to itself while watching ZANU PF exercise the power and authority that it undoubtedly and demonstrably retains.

It is true that Tendai Biti was told by the British foreign Secretary and the American State Department during his recent trips to the two countries that they will not be supporting the MDC-PF government.

And it is true that Biti has communicated this to Tsvangirai.

But it is also equally true that Tsvangirai believes that he stands to gain more by staying in than by pulling out. Go figure.

Four senior MDC-T people confirmed this to me this morning. So, as things stand right now, the cruel upping of hope for the bedraggled and wide-eyed MDC-T hardline supporters will be dashed before the week is out.

In other words, the opposition party is well and truly SCREWED.

A couple of hours after the traditional Tuesday Cabinet meeting started here in Harare today, Jestina Mukoko and 15 other MDC activists were sent back to Chikurubi Maximum Security Prison. The Magistrate told a visibly stunned and shaken Mukoko that the matter was now "out of my hands".

Which was very telling.

Tsvangirai was alerted to the re-imprisonment of Mukoko as he sat at the oak Cabinet Room table with Mugabe, Mutambara and other ministers from all the parties. At the time of writing of writing this, it is not clear if Mugabe has allowed Tsvangirai to bring up the matter under Any Other Business in the cabinet (He is a stickler for protocol and will only entertain what is on the agenda. As Chairman of Cabinet, he also has the power to rule not to allow any matter to be put on the agenda.)

But this move by Mugabe is not really a surprise for those who are in the know.

This is a reaction to the renewed efforts by the MDC-T to investigate Gideon Gono. JOC, which is still unofficially meeting (mostly at private residences) resolved last Thursday, just before May Day, that the gloves would now come off.

By going after Gono, Mugabe says, the MDC-T have basically signalled that they are not interested in reconciliation and healing. Reconciliation and healing for Mugabe means that anyone who has ever done anything for ZANU PF should be allowed to get away with murder, if it comes to that.

Hence, Mukoko and the other activists are once again the bargaining chip in the Gono fight. But the Gono fight itself is only a symptom of a deeper underlying problem within this GNU.

As Tsvangirai is exposed to have absolutely no power whatsoever in this Coalition, expected to do all the giving without getting anything back, he is being dressed down rather swiftly by the dictator.

In addition to the Gono issue, apparently what convinced Mugabe and ZANU PF that there is nothing to lose in behaving so badly is the conviction they have now that, no matter what they do, as long as Mugabe heads government and state, no funds will be forthcoming from the international community and the Bretton Woods institutions.

Essentially, therefore, there is nothing for Mugabe and his party to lose, except their position of power within Zimbabwe. Now they see that, even if they were to concede ground to Tsvangirai and the MDC, they will still be in a fix, they have decided simply to re-assert their authority.

As a ZANU PF minister said almost two weeks ago as the Gono debate raged: "Tsvangirai should be grateful to Mugabe for allowing him to not only continue walking around free, but also even become Prime Minister. If he does not show enough gratitude, he will be bitten (acharumwa)."

The case of Jestina Mukoko is now part of the wider "reconciliation" fight between Tsvangirai and Mugabe, into which Gono's own head has also been sucked.

As Kubatana asked in their SMS message sent to thousands of people in Zimbabwe less than an hour ago as I write this, "How does this reflect on the MDC-T?"

True, it is yet another humiliation for the Prime Minister, who vowed after his inauguration that Jestina and her fellow prisoners would "not stay in jail a day longer."

It also demonstrates yet again that where the power in this government lies. And more importantly, it shows just how the Prime Minister was unprepared to go into government, how he did not have a bigger strategy for dealing with what he must have known would be intransigence by Mugabe.

If he had a strategy, he certainly would have been concentrating on larger issues than the piddling fights for Permanent Secretaries, Ambassadors and Governors, which do not increase his authority or standing in any manner within government.

He would have picked his quarrels with Mugabe much more carefully than he is doing now.

As things stand now, the Prime Minister has been pushed to the very margins of power and is in danger of falling off the power radar completely.

Tsvangirai is essentially now in the same position Joshua Nkomo was in during the 1980s, when he was Minister of Home Affairs. As I have said before, people like Dabengwa and Lookout Masuku were arrested without Nkomo, their leader and Minister of Home Affairs, knowing anything about it.

You will recall that the same MDC-T supporters who were busy fighting against the GPA and agreeing with Tsvangirai as he refused to join the government changed their tune after he announced he was going in.

They dismissed my assertion that Tsvangirai would become another 1980s Nkomo by saying, "It's different. We are in the 21st Century now."

How different is this, I ask?

As usual, you will get no answer, only attempts at diversion!!

Proof is being provided by Mugabe that he still holds all the cards. He continues to state institutions and apparatus to dish out patronage to ZANU PF members and activists, just as he is currently doing in Mashonaland West and parts of Manicaland, where he is dishing out diamond money to supporters to start "projects".

With Morgan Tsvangirai telling workers at Gwanzura stadium on May Day that his government was broke and could only continue to pay civil servants US$100 (and was duly booed for his pain), it is perhaps time to examine why the MDC-T and Morgan Tsvangirai decided to join government.

Few saw the interplay and connection between what ZANU PF had started doing internally and how the MDC reacted. The timing is especially betraying.

Here's what it is.

As Morgan Tsvangirai and his party refused to be sworn in and ran away over our borders from the very agreement they had signed, Mugabe was finally persuaded to abandon his long-standing, ideological aversion to dollarisaton.

First, it was Patrick Chinamasa who stood up in parliament as Acting Minister of Finance and delivered not only a dollarised Budget but also a green light for Monetary Authorities to go ahead with wholescale licencing of businesses to trade in foreign currency.

Then Gono came in and announced just that. The Zimbabwean economy was dollarised. In Kombis and other public spaces, commuters discussed the rumour that Barak Obama and his government had given Zimbabwe seven days to stop using the Greenback because they did not have permission.

Even the ZCTU, which had been campaigning against dollarisation, suddenly found itself making public demands for specific salary figures in US dollars.

Meantime, the MDC-T and its leader were still playing the coy bride. Tsvangirai was cooling his heels in Botswana. Tendai Biti was spotted over oceans on his way overseas.

"Junior partners? Never?" was one sentiment expressed by both Tsvangirai and Nelson Chamisa.

"Better to have no deal than a bad deal," was how Tsvangirai put it at a rally he held while he was stuck in Zimbabwe because Mugabe had apparently taken to walking around with the Prime Minister-designate's passport in his back pocket.

THEN THE DOLLARISATION BOMBSHELL DROPPED.

Within a couple of weeks, Tsvangirai, who could clearly see that Mugabe was in a corner, failing to form a government without him, decided to give in.

So, at his strongest, the Prime Minister capitulated.

Well, he himself will privately acknowledge that dollarisation pretty much flushed the MDC-T out from the bushes. Running in tandem with this, of course, was the carefully planned destruction of the MDC as a political force by labelling it a terrorist organisation that trained insurgents.

The MDC-T's own immediate short-term strategy for stabilising Zimbabwe was to dollarise. When the MDC-T conceived of the idea, long before Mugabe adopted it, a strategist and leading Banker in Harare described the impact such a move would have as "dramatic, immediate and almost miraculous."

For the MDC-T, though, this strategy was backed also by a "promised" US$10 billion which the opposition had told supporters during the March campaign was "waiting at the border" to be shipped in as soon as the MDC-T went into government. "Friends", is how the benefactors were described.

So then, seeing Mugabe pull the rug from underneath them and convinced that Mugabe's bitterest foes, the economy and inflation were about to be tamed with dollarisation, the MDC-T and, especially Morgan Tsvangirai, decided to go in and hopefully take a share of the credit for the stabilisation that was to follow dollarisation.

Well then, it is the dollarisation, combined with the pressures from the heat Mugabe was turning on the party membership internally that drove Tsvangirai into Mugabe's arms.

Everyone said Tsvangirai had no appetite for it. His hand had been forced (though I think it would have been a scandal if Thabo Mbeki was seen wrestling the MDC-T leader and forcing him to sign the Global Political Agreement), we were told.

But the Prime Minister has proved that he does have an appetite for working cordially with Mugabe. This agreement, which is supposed to be reviewed by SADC in four months, is in no danger of collapsing.

The Prime Minister says, "We will not leave this government", preempting not only the Generals' suspicions but also all hope from his supporters who thought that the review remained the one light at the end of the dark tunnel into which Tsvangirai has now been shoved by Mugabe.

How can the MDC-T go back to SADC when they keep saying that their new-found "father" is just dandy and wonderful, but it is only a handful of frightful men in uniform who are wielding more power than the President and Prime Minister combined, who are the real problem?

The review itself could well be cancelled.

By the way, there has not been an official release of the findings of that SADC mission to investigate the insurgent claims by Mugabe against Tsvangirai? Botswana was paid a visit. And the SWAZI Monarch, who presented the report to SADC Heads of State, has not made it public. Nor has the SADC Full Summit itself.

We wait with bated breath for when this will be brought out. Meantime, we enjoy the show that is being put on by the MDC-PF. Fact: the Prime Minister is now implementing ZANU PF policies, has joined hands with ZANU PF. It is also fact now that Tsvangirai's MDC-T are the government in Zimbabwe. The MDC-T can not therefore, choose to enjoy the trappings of the office without sharing the responsibility.

As PM Tsvangirai told a reporter: "We are aware that we will be credited with the success or failure of this government."

If Mugabe fails, he fails.

So, essentially, when you strip away all the noise, you are left with this: Tsvangirai is now working to ensure that Mugabe succeeds, because therein also lies his own success.

The Prime Minister of Zimbabwe, MDC-T's Morgan Tsvangirai, sent six thugs to disrupt, jeer and belittle Dr Simba Makoni when he delivered a speech at a public forum organised by the Mass Public Opinion Institute in Harare on Thursday.

The subject of Dr Makoni's speech was National Healing and Reconciliation. Other panelists included Dr John Makumbe. The MDC-T's Sekai Holland, A Minister of State in the Prime Minister's Office (Healing Organ), who had been scheduled to speak, pulled out the day before the meeting when she heard that Dr Makoni himself would be representing Mavambo.

As soon as Dr Makoni started speaking, one of the six whipped out his cellphone and started speaking into it very loudly, right there in the hall as Dr Makoni spoke.

One of those sent, Edmore Manyofa, shocked the gathering, which was on Thursday, 30 April 2009, when he stood up during question time and insulted Dr Makoni to his face with the most vile and undignified words.

Makoni himself retained his cool and let the young man finish his rude interjection. The room was so silent when Manyofa launched his tirade that you could have heard a pin drop. His main point was the usual MDC-T smear against Makoni, that he had belonged to ZANU PF and was now being critical of the GNU simply because he wanted to be president, amongst other unprintable things.

Makoni took notes throughout Manyofa's tirade and then stood up to answer, chronicling in detail his efforts within ZANU PF and giving examples of when he stood up to Mugabe to try and change the course ZANU PF was taking. There was a standing ovation in response to Makoni's answer from the packed hall.

Interestingly, the heckler as well as one other person sent by the MDC-T leader's office approached Dr Makoni at the High Table after the end of the function and apologised for what they had been sent to do.

It is true, as my commentor says, some amongst the six disruptors are now being asked to return the US$5 they were given to humiliate Makoni. It is said they did not do good enough job of it. They say it is Dennis Murira, Public Affairs Officer in the Prime Minister's Office who is harassing them to return the US$5.

This handler, Dennis Murira, Public Affairs officer from the Zimbabwe Prime Minister's office, was at one time being sought by police and would have been arrested together with Gandi Mudzingwa according to plans that were laid down by Mugabe's people's before Tsvangirai agreed to become Prime Minister.

Murira, it was said privately by the intelligence authorities in Zimbabwe, had received the same training in Serbia that Gandi Mudzingwa got in December 2004. The MDC says the training they got in that country was on "mass action".

The authorities here were saying the training was much more sinister than that.

The meeting was also useful for the ugly mood towards this Unity Government amongst the people that it revealed. For instance, one questioner asked Dr Makoni how there can be healing when he was sitting next to a person to had raped his sister during the June 27 presidential "run-off".

Yet another questioner told Dr Makoni that "all politicians have let us down. We have now lost faith in both ZANU PF and the MDC." He also told Dr Makoni that in his (the questioner's) own constituency, a lot of promises had been made by the Mavambo Parliamentary Candidate and these never came to anything.

Dr Makoni responded by telling him that in his campaign, he repeatedly told people that he was not offering them anything material to vote for him. He wanted the people to be given an environment in which they did things for themselves.

In fact I myself can confirm that during the campaign, as I travelled for six weeks by road all over Zimbabwe with Dr Makoni, he repeatedly refused to buy "scuds" (sorghum beer) for the young men who frequently asked him to do so.

Dr Makoni cancelled the arrangement, saying he wanted people coming to his rally to be genuine supporters, not bussed-in supporters. "If five people show up, then we know those are genuine five supporters, instead of misleading ourselves with bussed-in people."

As an aside, I must say I was surprised at Dr John Makumbe who was agreeing loudly with Dr Makoni throughout his speech. Makumbe, who is a known MDC-T strategist and sympathiser, suggested the following as a way to deal with the Military Chiefs who remain opposed to Tsvangirai:

He said the Inclusive Government should give them amnesty and then hold new elections. He supposed the elections would be won by the MDC-T. After the elections, Dr Makumbe said, then the new government should revoke that amnesty and arrest the former Service Chiefs, who would have by then been retired.

Perhaps this is naivety, but he should know that the Service Chiefs are of the opinion that they do not need amnesty. One has said, "Amnesty for what? For defending my country?"

Still, for me, it is very revealing that Morgan Tsvangirai would sink to such depths. It betrays the lack of ideas within the MDC-T. It shows just how hollow their talk about tolerance and democracy is.

It reveals just how afraid, nay, mortified, the opposition party is of the challenge that Dr Makoni represents.

It also demonstrates beyond a doubt that the MDC stands neither for democracy nor for change. They are, at the highest level, as intolerant as Mugabe and ZANU PF.

It makes those of us wanting Zimbabwe to become as much of a First World country as South Africa (economically) even more determined.

It makes us even more determined to bring about a truly tolerant and democratic society that lives out the true meaning "freedom and tolerance."