Tsvangirai Outwits Mugabe - The Game Plan

Robert "The Solution" Mugabe has been played thoroughly by Morgan Tsvangirai during the PM's visits abroad.

JOC appears to have cottoned on to this, but the depth of the Prime Minister's strategy in tackling Mugabe is now very clear.

Here's the Prime Minister's game plan. I have alluded to it before in an article on this blog:

Morgan Tsvangirai still has the weapon of the economy, just Mugabe still retains brute force (through the Generals etc) as his weapon.

Although the two are in government, they are stalking each other. Mugabe uses his brute force weapon to intimidate his opponents, including the Prime Minister. He eggs his people on as they behave atrociously, as if there is no GNU in place at all. In essence, although he carries the title, ZANU PF is trying to make sure that Tsvangirai is PM only in name. They are blocking him from real power.

This they are able to do because of the weapon of brute force, which is unchallenged in this country.

Tsvangirai and the MDC-T have now decided to also bring out their own weapon.

They are saying, basically: "If you will not fire Gono, whom no one in the world trusts to handle any aid money, if you will not fire the Attorney General who is imprisoning our supporters, if you will allow Service Chiefs to challenge the authority of this government to the detriment of the MDC-T, then we will continue wielding our weapon, the economy."

As was discussed by JOC recently, it is now clear that, behind the scenes, the Prime Minister is encouraging the world to hold off on helping Zimbabwe. He is telling them that they can not invest now nor can they bring in aid money for government and for reconstruction because Mugabe is still not sincere about sharing power, despite the public utterances from him.

Frankly, I do not blame Tsvangirai. He is right and he has no choice.

Were he to suceed in opening doors for aid and grants and credit lines at this very moment, he would have lost out tremendously.

He knows very well that he still has no power in government. That it is possible for Mugabe to grab that aid, say thank you very much and turn on his coalition partners. Once Tsvangirai delivers that aid, he will be of no use to Mugabe and ZANU PF. They need him now because they want those sanctions and closed credit lines reopened.

Tsvangirai knows this. So this is now a fight for supremacy.

Mugabe pretends like he is powerless over the Service Chiefs and "hardliners".

Tsvangirai pretends the West just will not listen to his pleas for aid and reconstruction assistance.

Privately, he must be saying: "Waifunga kuti wakangwara Mugabe?! (You thought you were clever, Mugabe?!!

Tsvangirai has to do this. It is the only card he still has, really. If he gives it away, that's it, Mugabe gets to keep everything, Zimbabwe will be awash with donor funds and the false prosperity of the 1980s will be back with us for a bit.

But Tsvangirai will then be discarded, because the economy has always been Mugabe's biggest headache, his Achilles Heel. If Tsvangirai sorted it out for him without securing his own power and future, then that will be the end of the story.

Now we should watch and see how long it takes Mugabe to revert back to type and turn on Tsvangirai. This he will do. The lack of funds coming will frustrate him and Tsvangirai will be sitting there, smiling, insisting that he is in government to stay, he is not going to go anywhere.

Mugabe will have to eject him, which will be a a breach of the GPA so naked that no nation in Africa will support Mugabe.


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