That Mugabe's "mutiny" ruse is perfectly conceived is evidenced by the fact that so many people refuse to give him credit for being so diabolically clever. And those who are dismissing it will, I assure you, have egg on their faces before long. With apologies to Regional Diasporan, I must once again point out our near 100% accuracy with the analysis we have been putting up on this blog over the last few weeks. But let us not dwell on that.
The dictatorship now tells us that 16 soldiers have been arrested for the "mutiny". They are behind bars while the dictatorship carries out "investigations". Putting aside questions of what investigations are needed to identify mutineers whose faces are on the front pages of newspapers from here to Kingdom Come, let us dig deeper and ask what exactly these predetermined "investigations" are supposed to achieve. (By the way, if it is all as straightforward as the gullible would have us believe, then it should be straightforward all the way through: soldiers failed to access their money, turned on the regime, decided against it after five days or so and went back to barracks to face certain death by firing squad. What is there to "investigate". Everyone seems t o know this straightforward story, so why not the regime?)
Here's why: We are not going to see any trials or executions in this case because the purpose of the ruse has not been achieved yet. Mugabe desperately wants the legitimacy that a GNU will confer on him. He wants to force Tsvangirai to join him in government. To do this, the strategy has two possible directions, none of which can be activated until it is clear which direction Tsvangirai is going to take.
First of all, the plan was (or still is) that if Tsvangirai decides against taking part in government, then Mugabe will link the mutiny to the so-called militias the MDC is said to be training in Botswana. These soldiers will be said to have been the vanguard of the invasion by Tsvangirai's supposed militia. Some people seem not to understand this, which is why I said it is difficult for a layman to understand. Evidence of the so-called militias has already been presented to the SADC heads of state and they have not disputed it. (They also have not accepted it, which is why this "mutiny" ruse is necessary to convince them - Now do you get it? If not, you are beyond help!)
Doing this will, in Mugabe's mind, convince SADC that his negotiating partner has been the one negotiating in bad faith, while plotting an armed insurgency. Mugabe then gets their blessing to deal with the security threat. The only way for him to do this would be for him to declare a state of emergency to allow him to clean up the mess. Why? Because there is no legitimate government in the country at the moment that would be able to deal with security threat. The Emergency measures will allow for that government to be put in place. Parliament, cabinet and all the other inconveniences of democracy will then be awfully circumvented. (Don't worry, you are not the only one getting a headche from trying to figure this out, but you will when it finally happens, but it will be too late then.)
Mugabe, by the way, also confirmed another analysis I made here a few days ago saying that he has no intention of calling elections before his five year term is finished. Most people missed this in Mugabe's statement, made on Thursday to his Politburo.He threatened an election in two years time "IF (the GNU) does not work out."
Every news organisation in the world has reported this as Mugabe "threatening an election in two years time if the MDC REFUSES to join his government, which is clearly not what he said. Go back and look at that quote again. It says, "If it does not WORK OUT...." That is to say if the arrangement proves unworkable after it has been implemented.
Anyway, we digress, let us get back to the "mutiny" because meantime, Mugabe has no intention of just sitting idly by while Tsvangirai tells him not to form a government without him, yet refuses to help form that same government until he gets exactly what he wants. The dictator has to have a contingency plan, which is the plan some people are dismissing because they think he is not clever enough to come up with it.
So let us catch up with the soldiers who are in "custody" awaiting the completion of "investigations."
I bet my bottom dollar that these investigations will not be completed until we know what is happening to the agreement. There is an Amendment No 19 to be implemented. If the MDC play ball and vote for it in parliament (see my post of November 16, The MDC Plan, for analysis around this particular conundrum), then I can assure you that this "mutiny" case will fizzle out, just like all other previous "MDC terrorists arrested" newsflashes have fizzed out. The Amendment would have been passed, Morgan would be PM and we would have to examine other strategies Mugabe will come up with to get rid of them in government after they have served their purpose of saving him from his June "election" headache.
If, on the other hand, Morgan stymies the Amendment and the deal collapses, Mugabe will have to proceed with his plan to retain power and be able to rule without an MDC parliament, a parliamet that would surely make ruling impossible if the majority party are not in cabinet.
This is when you will see progress on the "investigations" front. Very quickly, the soldiers will be trotted out to confess their complicity with MDC militias in the mutiny. The army and the police will be praised for having saved the day. Mugabe's "government" will then announce that the militias are already in the country preparing to cause havoc and, in order to forestall that, emergency rule has to be imposed. Some naive ones amongst us ask still why SADC would accept a government without MDC in it. I have just provided the answer. Mugabe will "prove" that the MDC has now decided to take the armed struggle route and already SADC are of the view that Tsvangirai is being unreasonable in refusing to accept a power-sharing arrangement they themselves think is reasonable. It would not require a leap at all for them to say, "Aha! This is why the man was being unreasonable. He had another plan for taking power-force of arms." And blessing will be given to Mugabe to go ahead and restore "order", as well as "stabilise" the country. There you have your SADC-sanctioned state of emergency and the reasons why SADC would sanction it.
With that, Mugabe hopes to finish off the MDC (should they refuse to join him in government). Whether he holds new elections in two years, five years or six months will be a moot point: the MDC will then not be allowed to take part, because they would be labelled a terrorist organisation, bearing arms against the state. And the African continent would accept the position that if the MDC wants to take part in elections, it would have to "lay down arms and be prepared to use the ballot box", which as we all know is a futile route because the poll will be rigged again and Mugabe's party, with or without him, will be returned to power. This is the true Operation Ngatipedzenazvo that the MDC leadeship spoke about in the Executive Resolution that contains the infamous Resolution Number 3. It has nothing to do with assasinations as they think.
So, mark my words: the investigation into the "mutiny" will not be completed before we know what happens with Amendment No 19. They will not be completed until we know whether Tsvangirai has accepted to go into government or not.
Mark these words because we will be talking about this before long.
If you still do not understand, I will be happy to engage in exchanges with you here in the comments section. Punch holes into this Mugabe strategy as I have explained it to you today if you can.
I dare you