• Britain, America and The West Dump MDC
    SADC Heads of State pose for a group photograph yesterday at their summit in Swaziland, where they once again told Zimbabwe they can help financially and can only try and lobby the west to lift sanctions. Prof Welshman Ncube and Tendai Biti of the MDC said at the meeting that "the sanctions have had an effect on the economy". The Heads of State have pledged to specifically target the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act in the United States, lobbying for it to be repealed.

    The MDC has now effectively admitted that it has been cut loose by its friends and allies in the West and has to instead seek the intercession of Zimbabwe's neighbours to talk to its former allies in the West about helping the limping Inclusive government.

    Yesterday, Tendai Biti, the MDC Minister of Finance in this Inclusive Zimbabwean government, together with Robert Mugabe and Prof Welshman Ncube, asked the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Heads of State to intercede on Zimbabwe's behalf with Britain, America and other rich nations.

    SADC itself repeated at the same meeting that they can not give Zimbabwe any money, as had been hoped for by Tendai Biti. Of all the SADC countries, South Africa is the only one that has stumped up some cash - they pledged US$30 million, to be disbursed in monthly US$10 million tranches over three months.

    This is not even enough to cover the government wage bill, which stands at about US$50 million a month when you factor in allowances. Salaries themselves alone need US$30 million a month.

    Interestingly, though, Biti adopted Mugabe's and ZANU PF language this week, after "touring banks" according to the government newspaper, The Herald.

    Biti told the state-owned paper that he is "aware of saboteurs who want the Inclusive government to fail" because they are questioning whether the government can sustain the payment of foreign currency salaries.

    It was Mugabe who said during his birthday interview that he did not think the payment of salaries in foreign currency for the civil service was sustainable because " we do not have the money."

    So there is one saboteur right there.

    But Biti also shoulders the blame because of his alarmist talk that the Treasury coffers are "empty". He carries blame for his statements warning of "chaos" unless the donor countries give him money to pay the salaries of this bloated government.

    I feel sorry for the man and for the MDC in particular, because they are clearly in over their heads on this issue.

    Biti is perhaps still learning that his words now carry a lot of weight as Minister of Finance. He is no longer an opposition politician whose words have no impact on the running of the country and he must realise this and start to work accordingly.

    Still, even after those dire warning, except for the US$30 million from South Africa (enough for a month's salary bill), no other southern African country came up with any funds.

    Even Botswana, the MDC friend in the region, appears to also be dumping the Inclusive government. They did not pledge anything. Namibia said it will continue working with the Zimbabwe Power utility, ZESA, to refurbish Hwange Power station. 

    And that is it.

    The bottom line appears to be that the West, the people with the "deep pockets", as Biti called them at the summit in Swaziland yesterday, are keeping their money deep in their pockets.

    Was it not the MDC that always insisted that there must be good governance before aid is given to Zimbabwe. That good governance does only mean doing what the MDC wants, which is what the opposition thought before they joined government.

    Good governance also means not buying luxury cars when taps are dry because water treatment chemicals can not be bought.

    Good governance means setting priorities right, deciding whether it is better to bloat a government by providing "jobs for the boys" when there is no money to pay those "boys".

    Good governance means coming up with workable policies to turn the economy around and not simply announcing an "it will alright on the night" STERP document, which is bereft of any policy except begging for money.

    Good governance means demonstrating fiscal responsibility, deciding what is more urgent, furniture for minster's offices or US$1.5million to refurbish Harare Hospital (this is sum that Morgan Tsvangirai said was needed to get the hospital in top condition).

    In effect, the West have dumped the MDC because the party has failed to demonstrate, just demonstrate, that its presence in the corridors of power has resulted in a shifting of priorities.

    It is unlikely that SADC will succeed in garnering the aid that they have undertaken to demand from the west. Britain and American and the IMF and the Word Bank are not amenable and no one can force them.

    Their position is still the same: they do not see any meaningful change in the way the affairs of the country are being run and they are not keen to part with their money under these circumstances.

    With Biti cutting away all the infrastructure development provisions in the budget and leaving only consumptive budget provisions in his "hunter-gatherer" economy as he himself has insultingly called his new regime, there is no policy in place to stimulate growth of the economy from within.

    Their hopes were pinned on others giving them money to spend on salaries and also money to start production in Zimbabwe.

    South Africa, by giving away the insulting sums of US$10 million, is only looking after its own interests. As long as Zimbabwe does not have a manufacturing sector, South African companies have a dollarised market in Zimbabwe that will give them even more money and grow the South African economy even more.

    Meanwhile, dumped by the West, the MDC can only flounder, together with its new best friend, ZANU PF.

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  • Tsvangirai/Mnangagwa Meetings And My Call From "The President's Office"
    Most of you reading this blog know that you can not mistake a call from "The President's Office". Yes, it is that unique number, the one with five zeroes in it (and it is a land line). The presidential switchboard numbers, as you will know, have 7 digits where most others in Harare have six.

    Well, I was extremely surprised at about 3 p.m. today to get a call from that number and even more surprised that the caller seemed keen to "clear the air" about the meetings I reported on yesterday between Tsvangirai and Mnangagwa.

    To start with, I was surprised that the caller referred to "the article you wrote in the Zimbabwean". I did not. I have never written for The Zimbabwean in my life, ever. I checked it out later and it turns out the article was taken from this blog by an online newspaper called The Zimbabwe Mail. The Zimbabwean then took the same article from the Zimbabwe Mail.

    This is now a familiar story with my articles. I must say that I have personally given permission to The Zimbabwe Mail to use my articles on condition they credit the source and provide a link to this blog within that story, as is normal ethical practice in the online industry. 

    Other "publications" on the Internet are also now so obsessed with this blog that, normally , within an hour of me publishing anything here, they would have stolen it and put it on their websites. I thought I would clear the air on that and tell you that it is only The Zimbabwe Mail who use my posts here with permission.

    The Zimbabwean did nothing wrong in picking the article up from The Zimbabwe Mail, together with the credits to source at the bottom of it.

    Anyway, my caller today puzzled me greatly because I was not sure what he was trying to achieve. He claimed that he wanted to give me "context", which is surprising because the President's Office does not bother itself with newspaper stories, let alone bloggers.

    Whatever the case, the person at the other end, who I would have cut off as a wacko were it not for the number reflected on my screen, claims that I "missed the true significance" of the story that was given to me about the meeting between the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defence.

    He says the true story is not about Mugabe's reaction and that I was "supposed" to look into the fact that the two men, Tsvangirai and Mnangagwa, are both from the same ethnic group (Karanga). This, apparently, is where the true significance of the story lies.

    "How do you know that it was not His Excellency himself who asked Mnangagwa to speak to Tsvangirai as a home boy? No matter what happens in the future, the president knows that if Mnangagwa is a big player in the politics of tomorrow, then the Minister of Defence would always safeguard the interests of not the president, but also the liberation war?"

    What my caller was insinuating, basically, is that the president was using the ethnic bond between the two men to sound out the future, to see whether his "legacy" would be protected once he leaves the national stage.

    What I found disconcerting was this caller's emphasis on ethnicity. For instance, he claimed that "the two people who have mastered African tribal politics in post-colonial Africa are Robert Mugabe and Jomo Kenyatta of Kenya."

    It is disconcerting for me because, I have never, ever thought in terms of tribal politics and I really do not think that such politics has a place in the 21st century.

    Still, the mentality seems strong enough and I am not sure whether MorganTsvangirai would want to perpetuate such divisive politics. I have never seen him as a tribal politician, which is a hallmark of ZANU PF power games.

    Which means I doubt very much that the PM would be swayed by ethnic considerations in his decisions. I could be wrong, but I hope I am not.

    But the call puzzled me because I can not see what it was trying to achieve really. A colleague in our office pointed out to me that the PM is now working from the Presidential Office Complex and that the call could easily have been made by one of his own as opposed to one of Mugabe's men.

    Even then, I still can not see the point it.

    So I am going to do an unusual thing here: There are three readers of this blog who have, in my experience of exchanges with them, proved astute analysers of events and I would ask that they perhaps give their thoughts. 

    So step forward, Mr Mutota, Thokozile and Oliver (I will not give the last name, cause I am not sure he wants to be identified, but you know who you are and I have even made an article out of one of your email comments to me).

    Do any of you guys see anything in this that I am missing? I would really really appreciate those incisive and insightful analysis from you right now. And, of course, anyone else who believes I may be missing something here.

    The story was straightforward to me before that accursed call came through!!!

    P.S. By the way, I am failing to access my blog to post new stories today, must be the internet connection again. So to post this article, I have used a very convenient feature in Wiindows Vista, where you can compose your article in MS Word and, as long as you have some form of internet connection, you then "send" your post to your blog by putting in your Google user name and password into the Windows Vista dialogue box.

    This explains why this post has no pictures in it, I have not figured out how to do that yet!! And, although Windows Vista tells me my ppost has been published, I have no way of seeing it on my own blog until the connections improve enough for me to see my Blogspot blog.

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  • Zimbabwe Truth Commission: We're Proved Right Yet Again!
    These are the remains of an MDC polling Agent, who was abducted and murdered by Mugabe's activists during the June 2008 run-off election. The picture was released by the MDC after his body was discovered on the outskirts of a Harare suburb weeks later. It is crimes and violence like this that the Prime Minister's Office now confirms will be forgiven by the envisaged Truth Commission, which will be kicked off in Bulawayo in April this year.


    This blog has now been proved right yet again and this time it is on the envisaged Zimbabwe Truth and Reconciliation Committee (Morgan Tsvangirai prefers the title Truth and National Healing Commission).

    Gorden Moyo, Minister of State in Prime Minister Tsvangirai's office, has confirmed to the Standard that Zimbabwe is to hold a "summit" in April in Bulawayo with other stakeholders in order to get a way forward on this process.

    I told you about all this in my scoop entitled "Zimbabwe To Get Truth Commission", which was published on this blog last month, on 23 February, to be precise.

    As I told you in that article, Mugabe has refused to include the Matabeleland Massacres of the 1980s in this process, telling the PM that Gukurahundi had "nothing to do with the MDC" and Tsvangirai has agreed to this. 

    The PM is obviously trying to make up for this betrayal of Matabeleland by holding the workshop in Bulawayo, the capital city of the Matabeleland region.

    Interesting to see is the fact that my sources were also very accurate with regards to the fact that Mugabe has told Tsvangirai that Gukurahundi has nothing to do with the MDC. Hence, in the announcement made by Minister Gorden Moyo in The Standard today, the paper says the planned summit in Bulawayo will "explore ways of reconciling Zimbabweans divided by almost a decade of political".

    This clearly rules out Gukurahundi. The focus will be on the violence meted out since the formation of the MDC. Mugabe has argued that when he joined hands with Joshua Nkomo in 1987, that ended the matter of Gukurahundi.

    But even this "consultation" set for April is also a sham. Mugabe says on matters like this, "guided democracy is best."

    What this means is that the Conference in April is simply for show. Gorden Moyo says the report from that Summit will be submitted to the Council of Ministers, chaired by Tsvangirai. This Council will, in turn, then submit its recommendations to Cabinet.

    Effectively, then, the final format of this Truth Commission will be decided by Mugabe, who chairs cabinet. Because of his "guided democracy" belief, you can expect that this Commission will only take the form that Mugabe wants it to take.

    As most of you know, no one has ever been prosecuted for the massacres of Gukurahundi and Mugabe wants the same to happen with the violence around the MDC, such as the one in the photo above.

    There are some within MDC who are opposed to this "impunity" but Tsvangirai has such mastery over the MDC that his agreement with Mugabe will ensure that their voice never carries the day.

    In effect therefore, this proposed Truth Commission is going to simply paper over the cracks. It is disappointing only because by papering over the issue instead of bringing closure to it, Mugabe and Tsvangirai will simply be handing a powder keg to future generation. The issues of Gukurahundi and the violence meted out to opposition supporters is bound to explode in the faces of future leaders of Zimbabwe.

    Mugabe is reviled in Matabeleland and can never hope to win a majority there because Gukurahundi was never fully dealt with to bring closure for the people of the region. This time, he and Tsvangirai will repeat the same mistake and leave simmering hatred and resentment to be sorted out later by future leaders.

    Still, I thought I would bring it to your attention that yest another scoop from this blog has now been proved correct.

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  • Mugabe Goes Ballistic Over Tsvangirai, Mnangagwa Secret Meetings
    President Robert Mugabe "went ballistic" on Saturday when he found out Morgan Tsvangirai and Emmerson Mnangagwa have secretly  met up to six times since the MDC leader became Prime Minister.

    The Prime Minister is said to have met with the ZANU PF heavyweight, who has been confirmed already by Mugabe as his preferred choice for President, in Harare and at a farm in the Kwekwe area.

    Mugabe, told Saturday in a briefing about the meetings, is reported to have threatened to send the Minister of Defence back into the "wilderness" (gwenga, was the Shona word Mugabe used, apparently).

    Although not immediately clear whether Mugabe was told what the mettings were about, he immediately saw this as a threat to his continued grip on power. Mugabe, although he has told Mnangagwa that he will most certainly now take over as head of ZANU PF and eventually President of Zimbabwe, likes things done his way.

    He believes Mnagagwa and Tsvangirai may be planning to sideline him, now that Mnangagwa is confident of taking over within ZANU PF. 

    I have previously told you about Mnangagwa's statements to ZANU PF colleagues, where he half-jokingly said he would not mind having Tsvangirai as his Prime Minister when he takes over the presidency of Zimbabwe.

    It is quite likely that the Prime Minister is trying to negotiate for the future, perhaps to cement his position within the corridors of power. It is highly unlikely that the two could be discussing a situation in which Tsvangirai would try to accomodate Mnangagwa in a future Tsvangirai presidency.

    This is because Mnangagwa's burning, fierce ambition for the Presidency means he is unlikely to ever contemplate playing second fiddle to Tsvangirai.

    I just got this news today, so I will try and dig up some more to find out just what sort of deal these two men are trying to strike.

    It may well be all in vain, however, if Mugabe's mood today is anything to go by. What it means is that Mnangagwa has not reported on these meetings to Mugabe, which makes the dictator extremely suspicious.

    As for Tsvangirai, I think he is aware that he is playing with fire. The last time Mnangagwa was suspected of plotting against Mugabe was when Prof. Jonathan Moyo arranged that meeting in Tsholotsho, at which support was being drummed up for Mnangagwa to take the vice-presidency now occupied by Joice Mujuru.

    Mugabe swiftly demoted Mnangagwa, relegating him to the Ministry of Rural Housing and Social Amenities. He was, effectively, "put in the dog house", as he himself recognised.

    He only bounced back in February as Minister of Defence in the Inclusive Government, a very high accolade indeed to the presumptive heir. He is trusted, and that is the message Mugabe sought to send, grateful that The Crocodile had not sought to capitalise on Simba Makoni's defection from the party.

    Now, however, the Minister of Defence could again very quickly find himself relegated back to the wilderness if Mugabe believes what he was told today. It already appears that he does indeed credit the reports.

    When his power is "threatened" directly like this, Mugabe is very predictable. Action will be swift, ruthless. I dare say, on account of this, he would indeed be willing to let the government fall to pieces, if it were to come to that.

    Or perhaps there is a good enough explanation that he will get from Mnangagwa and all this will simply be a storm in a tea-cup?

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  • The Corruption Of Morgan Tsvangirai
    Either the MDC and Morgan Tsvangirai have been corrupted by ZANU PF or they were always like this and never really represented the change and seismic shift in focus that Zimbabwe needs in order to rise and start working again.

    We had interesting meeting with a western diplomat stationed in Harare today and what he had to say reveals just why the west, especially, is not going to come to the aid of the GNU with funds.

    The western diplomat minutely detailed his country's concerns about the way the MDC is going about things and here are some of the things he says show that Morgan Tsvangirai has either been corrupted by ZANU PF or that the MDC was always a corrupted party and are now simply showing their true colours because opportunity has been granted them
    • The MDC-controlled Harare City Council set the minimum wage for its workers at US$379. This means that the least paid municipal worker is getting this amount from the City Council.
    • The same MDC council had allocated its councillors stands in low and high-density areas, which stands were being given virtually free, since the price was set in Zimbabwe dollars and were ridiculously low.
    • The people who are being paid US$379 minimum wage above are MDC grassroots supporters whom the opposition gave jobs to in January this year, vastly expanding a staff complement that had already been bloated under ZANU patronage rules, where ZANU PF also offered jobs to supporters in order to buy support. The MDC simply followed this same example when they took control of the councils. In other words, there was no change of culture or mindset when the opposition took over.
    • The same MDC controlled council has also set salaries for "supervisors at as high as US$3 000 per month
    • While all this going on, City of Harare residents are still going without water, risking a resurgence of cholera.
    • While the MDC Council pays these salaries, Harare's roads controlled by the council are still full of potholes and in a very bad state of disrepair.
    • While The MDC does this, the water delivery infrastructure has collapsed, hence the absence of water from city home taps, meaning cholera continues to loom large.
    • Rubbish is still piling up in the streets of Harare, uncollected, again breeding cholera.
    • The Council is, therefore, simply hiking charges (yes they hiked, water charges where they are not delivering water, rubbish collection fees when they are not collecting any rubbish etc) in order to pay inflated salaries to their army of underemployed supporters, NOT in order to improve the lives of citizens
    • At the National level, within the GNU itself, the MDC has rushed to collect Mercedes Benzes for its ministers, to pay hefty salaries for the same ministers and their staff and to claim expenses for "work" when none can be seen being done.
    • The Prime Minister now spends his time fighting over the appointment of Permanent Secretaries, Ambassadors and Governors (in order to give jobs "to his boys" - is how the western diplomat put it.
    • The government of Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai is spending precious foreign currency buying new furniture, from leather sofas to glossy coffee tables for ministerial offices, while paying civil servants US$100 per month, which, as of this month, the same civil servants are failing to access. This is why you hear Biti warning of "civil unrest" if aid is not delivered.
    • The western diplomat also pointed to the one ministry in particular, the failure by Nelson Chamisa to bring TelOne and the Internet service of Zimbabwe to heel as evidence that the MDC's priorities in the ministries they control is all wrong.....
    • The continued prosecution of Jestina Mukoko, Roy Bennett, Ghandi Mudzingwa and many others, seem to have been accepted as inevitable by the MDC, and it appears that they have now shifted their focus to the trappings of power as opposed to the deliverance of the rule of law, respect for human rights and other democratic ideals. They are, the diplomat said, "abandoning the very principles upon which they staked their reputation."
    • Farms continue to be invaded, destroying food security yet again, but it appears the Prime Minister has also decided that there is anything he can do about this.
    "I am absolutely certain that if we gave any money to this government, it would disappear down a black hole before it can get to the people. I have told my government that the best option is to give money to aid agencies like UNICEF and USAID, who will use it to benefit people directly."

    However, the statement that gave me cause for concern was when he said he had such high hopes for Morgan Tsvangirai that he was "personally wounded by this corruption of the Prime Minister."

    He did not mean that the Prime Minister is now corrupt, but that he has been corrupted, he said. I just wondered whether there is a difference between the two. Much as Mugabe was considered "not corrupt, but he tolerates corruption", the same appears to now be said of Morgan Tsvangirai.

    Surprisingly, this western diplomat says he believes that the only reason the MDC are not getting even more corrupt and greedy at national level is because of the presence of ZANU PF. He believes that the two parties at that level are watching each other closely and the MDC is unlikely to suggest any moves that could be seen as corruption or greedy.

    But he also points out that where the greediness is institutionalised, like with the offering of new Mercedes Benzes to ministers, the MDC will actually give in, since it can always justify itself by saying these are established benefits that they found in place.

    It was a long meeting, indeed and it served to show me personally just how closely this government is being watched.

    As this diplomat explains minutely what it is that is wrong with this arrangement (and why Mugabe and Tsvangirai appear happy with it), it becomes clear what the MDC are doing at the moment is pursuing power. Everything they are focusing on (appointments of governors, ammbassadors, permanent secretaries etc) has no impact on the suffering of the people.

    Instead, it is all designed to concentrate as much power as possible in the hands of the MDC.

    And yes, it is the people who suffer in the end.

    As a footnote, let me end by telling you that Zimbabwe, for most of today, was again cut off from the Internet. Yes, the whole country "disappeared from the Internet" as the people at Utande, an ISP here, put it.  It simply confirms what I told you a couple of weeks back when we were also cut off from the world as a country: as long as this GNU is in place, our Internet services will continue to be like this.

    As a result of the shutdown of national Internet, I was unable to fulfil an interview request with BadGals Radio, based in America, who wanted an interview on the Internet with me today.

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  • Bennett: I told You So, Didn't I?
    Regular readers will not be surprised that yet another scoop that I published here has now been independently confirmed.

    The latest in the long line of the scoops I have given you to be proved right is the story that Mugabe wants Roy Bennett to be withdrawn as the MDC nominee for Deputy Minister of Agriculture.

    This scoop I gave you in the article entitled: Roy Bennett Must Be Withdrawn, which I published here on Thursday, March 5 2009.

    Well, SWRadio have now independently confirmed this, with an MDC source telling them exactly what I told you. My source was within ZANU PF. When I got the news, I contacted friends in the Prime Minister's office. I remember very clearly that I spoke on the phone with one of the Prime Minister's very close aides only a couple of hours before the crash that killed Mrs Tsvangirai.

    In that scoop I published on March 5, I wrote: Mugabe considers it an insult to have to swear the man into the office of Deputy Minister of Agriculture. And I am sure that unless and until Morgan Tsvangirai agrees to withdraw Bennett's nomination for the Agriculture ministry, the MDC Treasurer-General is in for the Long-haul.

    Yesterday, SW Radio published the story, which can be found here. This is coming a full 20 days after I published the scoop here. The radio station says:

    According to MDC officials, Mugabe told a cabinet caucus on Monday that he will not swear in Bennett, claiming he is facing serious charges. This is despite the fact that the President swore in some MDC officials such as Minister Eric Matinega, who also still faces trumped up political.

    During the meeting, it's alleged that Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara asked Mugabe what would happen if Bennett was acquitted. Mugabe is reported to have said, "He will ever be acquitted."

    So, I am proved right yet again.

    Throughout this Bennett ordeal, I have stated time and again that the Prime Minister is mistaken to defend Mugabe as he is now doing, telling the Guardian, "Mugabe is not the problem. It is others." He has swallowed the tripe that Chiwengwa and some "hardliners" in ZANU PF are the ones doing all these nasty things in order to scuttle the agreement and the coalition government.

    I have said repeatedly that these army guys and what Tsvangirai and the MDC call "ZANU PF hardliners" are not the ones calling the shots. Mugabe is. The biggest hardliner in ZANU PF, I have said, is Mugabe himself.

    This confirmation of my scoop is yet another validation of the reliability of my sources, who tell me that the president simply want the MDC to fix the economy and then he will part ways with Tsvangirai and go back to his old ways. But Biti and Tsvangirai seem to think, as Biti has said, "we have now seen a side of President Mugabe we never knew. He spoke like a father."

    There is a critical question that needs to be answered here. What exactly does the MDC and especially Prime Minister Tsvangirai, think they will achieve in an atmosphere like this? MDC supporters have left comments and messages here saying: "Because of the immense suffering of the people....." the MDC decided to go into government.

    This assumes that the MDC going into government means the people's suffering will be lessened or ended. Now we know this is not the case. The people themselves are now complaining heavily that their problems seem to have actually worsened as a result of this government.

    Perhaps the MDC have a death wish. Because they will certainly suffer a political death as a result of the developments within this coalition. The suffering of the people will not be lessened by this new govenment at all.

    Already, the USA, the EU and Britain have said sanctions will remain in place and they will not give any aid to Zimbabwe.

    The truth of the matter is that these donor countries have now also written off Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC. They have decided that the MDC, with its behaviour in government, where it is implementing ZANU PF policies despite being given the mandate by Mugabe to formulate and implement new policies, is simply another ZANU PF.

    So, with no aid, with his friends deserting him and refusing to help bolster the image of the MDC with its supporters and voters, Tsvangirai and Biti still insist that they will not pull out of government? 

    To what end?

    It really is no exaggeration that the MDC is facing political death because of the way they are now identifying themselves with ZANU PF. The world watches and sees this and decides to wash its hands of Zimbabwe. Britain has been very quiet, simply letting their silence tell the MDC what they think of the new arrangement.

    The problem is that, the voters in Zimbabwe have also lost any belief they had that the MDC could magically change things through its Western friends if it came to power.

    The result may be that they will look for a third party to support or simply decide to abandon all hope that the ballot box can bring any change to Zimbabwe.

    This time, the MDC can not blame Mugabe for the ills facing the people. They are now in government and the failures of this government are their and Mugabe's failures together.

    I really do not expect any MDC supporters to engage this issue. They always go very quiet when their party is exposed as a fraud visited on the people of Zimbabwe. It will be same this time around: no comment from MDC supporters.

    But that does not remove the people's anger and frustration. As one young man said yesterday (in a Kombi, of all places), "we will meet the MDC at the next election, and then they will see what we do to them."

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  • Mugabe And Tsvangirai Stuck
    Zimbabwe's dictator, Robert Mugabe, is watching with glee as the MDC squirms in the hot seat of government, with the latest blow to Tsvangirai's hope for alleviating the people's suffering coming from the United States Ambassador in Zimbabwe.

    The Ambassador told SW Radio that sanctions will not be lifted any time soon. The European Union is indeed showing signs of fracturing, which is Mugabe's long-cherished dream and prediction. The Zimbabwean leader has said privately on many occasions that the Nordic countries will be first to break ranks with the EU.

    He has also predicted that Germany will do the same, once Chinese investments for rebuilding Zimbabwe start coming in. German is an industrial powerhouse, was the thinking, and it would not stand idly by while lucrative contracts were dished out......

    So far, ministers from two Nordic countries have come to Zimbabwe, but their commitment has been muted and they are still saying they will help on the humanitarian front only. The state newspaper, The Herald, is shouting itself hoarse, cheering every landing at Harare International Airport by an EU minister and promising wonderful things as a result of the visits.

    The truth is that it is all wishful thinking. Even Harare's streets, which were full of the usual bluster barely two weeks ago, with people telling each other that the West has promised Tsvangirai US$5 billion, have now all gone quiet.

    It is starting to sink in. There is no bailout coming for this country. The only hope lies in South Africa, whose Finance Minister said recently that he could revive an old line of credit extended to Ian Smith's Rhodesia by Vorster's apartheid regime through the South Africa Reserve Bank. "We could resuscitate that," he said at the time.

    But help from South Africa, whether through a line of credit or full monetary integration into the Rand Monetary Union, can only be looked at in May. This is because South Africa hold its elections in April, which is next month. 

    Zuma and his camp would not want to be seen to be giving money to Zimbabwe in the run-up to elections. The xenophobia attacks in South Africa last year show just how touchy the subject of foreigners is in the country.

    If the ANC government were to give Zimbabwe money before the election, they could suffer heavily at the polls, as the opposition would be able to take advantage of this to preach about giving money away to Mugabe while service delivery and the housing needs of South Africans are not yet met.

    Meantime, the IMF is still saying Zimbabwe needs to repay its debts first before discussions can take place. Gideon Gono now knows from bitter experience that, even after the debt is repaid, the IMF will simply find another reason not to lend money.

    The IMF are taking their cue from the Americans and as long as they and the British maintain sanctions, then there will be no change of heart at Bretton Woods either.

    Anyway, you will recall that Finance Minister Tendai Biti told gathered diplomats and businessmen at the launch of "Economic Recovery Programme" that the Mugabe/Tsvangirai government was in talks about the lifting of sanctions, especially the America Law ZIDERA.

    "As far as the USA is concerned, it is imperative that the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act (ZIDERA) be repealed and representations and consultations have already begun in this respect," Biti told the gathering.

    Later on that day, Robert Woods, acting Spokesman for the State Department in the USA, contradicted this when he pointedly told his daily briefing audience, "We are not in consultations with any persons or any group about that.

    The bottom line is that, no aid is coming to Zimbabwe, certainly, and there will be no influx of the skilled Zimbabweans back into the country from the diaspora where they went in search of better lives. This means there will be no recovery, the skills are simply not here anymore. And we will not have the money nor the stability to attract them back.

    Which means Mugabe and Tsvangirai are stuck, basically. The sad thing is that Tsvangirai has taken on some of Mugabe's culpability as far as the people of Zimbabwe are concerned.

    Tsvangirai will now be identified with this failure and my greatest fear is that faith in democracy, politicians and the fruits of transparent and honest government will also suffer the same crisis of confidence as people decide that all these people are the same and nothing will ever change.

    SO WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? WHY NO AID, NO HELP FOR TSVANGIRAI?

    Well, as I have said on this blog before, and as one of our readers, Nyatsimba Mutota, pointed out yesterday, the lack of policy direction from the MDC is definitely counting against them. Donors look at the bloated government, which is essentially going to gobble the entire US$1 billion budget announced by Biti and they run.

    The issue now is not about Mugabe or whatever certain ignoramuses may want you to believe. Biti made provisions for circumventing ZANU PF, Mugabe and the Reserve Bank in his operations.

    He says in his new budget statement that the country's accounts will now be held at Treasury, meaning his ministry. Which means Gono has no power over any money the country will have, either donor funds or revenue from taxes and duties.

    In his Blue Book, which details the votes for each ministry, money that is kept in reserve for specific contingencies for various ministries has also now been put under the sole control of Treasury (Ministry of Finance). Each item listed under these reserves in the blue book is headlined by a statement stating that none of the money will be released without the approval of the Finance ministry.

    So, having put all these measures in place to reassure donors and aid agencies, Biti, Tsvangirai and the MDC are still being kicked in the teeth by their allies, who were "promising" ten billion US dollars during the March 2008 elections?

    Funny? It would be if it did not have such devastating consequences for the people of Zimbabwe and the  future of this country.

    ***************
    As for the earlier story about the fight between soldiers and policemen, it appears it was nothing organised at all but started when one soldier accused a policeman of stepping on his shoe in the bank queue at First Street.

    The two challenged each other and went into the park, followed by their comrades, where the fight between the two men degenerated into a melee. 

    This evening, there was a riot police lorry parked at the park, along Third Street, in front of our offices. It appears even this inclusive government is not leaving anything to chance.

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  • Army, Police Fight It Out In Harare City Centre Park

    Army personnel in uniform engaged in a fist-fight with policemen in uniform in Africa Unity Square in Harare today. Africa Unity Square is right in front of parliament in the capital. The fight apparently started outside CABS in First Street, where the uniformed forces were waiting for the arrival of their foreign currency salary allowances. It is still not clear at this very early stage what exactly triggered it. But you will recall that the last time the police and soldiers clashed in Harare, it was also over money and payment of salaries. I saw one policeman who was bleeding from the head as the fight ended and he was put into a police pick-up truck and driven away.

    The fight ended when a huge lorry, covered with canvas at the back, arrived at the Square with military police on board. When the truck arrived, some of soldiers quickly disappeared, some going towards First Street and others, crossing the park towards Meikles Hotel.

    This incident comes as some civil servants also invaded Tendai Biti's office in Harare. Biti is the MDC Secretary-General and Zimbabwe's Minister of Finance. The civil servants had gone to Agribank to withdraw their US$100 salaries using the vouchers given to them by the government. Agribank was refusing to honour these vouchers, claiming that they had not received any money from the government to disburse.

    The civil servants, who included teachers, invaded Biti's office yesterday and refused to leave until the matter was resolved. Biti then went the group to Agribank on Park Street in Harare and went into a meeting with the management of the bank. The meeting was closed to the public, including the civil servants who had gone to complain.

    It appears the meeting did not bear much fruit because even as of today, the civil servants are still waiting outside CABS and Agribank.

    Now, sources within government, but on the ZANU PF side are saying that when Biti announced that the vouchers would be exchanged for cash at the banks (they were originally to be used only to buy goods in designated supermarkets when Gono introduced them earlier this year), the Reserve Bank warned him that there was not enough cash to meet the demand that would ensue. Mugabe himself, in his birthday interview, also said that he did not think the move was sustainable "because we don't have the money."

    But you will recall that a couple of months ago, I told you about the massive looting that was being undertaken by the "caretaker cabinet" of Mugabe, which was in place awaiting the appointment of Tsvangirai as Prime Minister. They basically cleaned the government out, externalising huge sums of money as a result of a loophole the Reserve Bank worked into its last Monetary Policy Statement, basically dumping all forms of Exchange Control regulation.

    Most people are not aware that the auditing of the Reserve Bank has been blocked by Mugabe and the MDC have given in, for now. But, in retaliation, Biti has since announced that all government revenue from now on will be kept at Treasury, meaning the Ministry and NOT the Reserve Bank. His revised Budget statement last week also removed every single levy and source of income for the Reserve Bank. Which means the RBZ now has no income generating opportunities at all.

    Biti has told the MDC leadership that, through this strategy, he fully expects that Gono will be asking for money to run the Reserve Bank within about six month. It is at that time that the Minister of Finance intends to revive the issue of the firing of the Central Bank Governor, which has, in the meantime, been ruled out flat by Mugabe.

    But it appears that the handling of this civil service salary issue is a powder keg. If Biti is not careful, he will have a true rebellion on his hands, especially with the soldiers. Previously, the armed forces ire was directed at Gono. Some of them, if you recall, went to one of the Central Bank Governor's farms and impounded a lot of chickens, saying they were hungry because the Reserve Bank was limiting cash withdrawals and they could not access their salaries. To this day, the soldiers who took all those chickens have not been apprehended, as is the fashion with Mugabe, where he habitually licences impunity.

    Unless the MDC can get some form of funding from outside, I really do not expect this coalition to last till end of the year. The problem is compounded by the MDC's failure to come up with proper policies for driving the economy. At the moment, they are focusing on simply keeping Zimbabwe limping.

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  • Zimbabwe Army Commander Gravely Sick
    The Commander of the combined Zimbabwe Defence Forces, General Constantine Chiwengwa, is so gravely ill that on Friday night, he was admitted to the Manyame Air Force Base Hospital in Harare and was only released on Sunday afternoon. 

    The General arrived at Manyame Air Force Base with an oxygen mask on him, apparently.

    The release on Sunday was apparently a self-discharge. Doctors at the hospital had insisted that Chiwengwa needed at least a week under observation in hospital but, "like a true soldier", (according to sources close to him), he checked himself out on Sunday afternoon, saying he had important work to attend to.

    President Mugabe visited the General alone on the night he was admitted, Friday. I understand the president stayed for close to three hours.

    The Generals wife, Jocelyn, who nearly assaulted Morgan Tsvangirai at a wholesalers a couple of years back, has not been seen in public for some months and it is rumoured that she is also extremely ill and that doctors do not hold much hope for her beyond a couple of months. The last time she was seen on Zimbabwe television was about a year ago.

    She was doing humanitarian work with some village women and appeared very gaunt, thin and unwell.

    The General himself is a frequent visitor to a hospital in Cuba, the same hospital where General Zvinavashe was last treated in January this year.

    General Chiwengwa is currently Public Enemy No 1 with the MDC, who allege that his car was used to abduct Roy Bennet when he was taken from Charles Prince Airport in February this year. The opposition party also claims he is at the forefront of destabilising the Government of National Unity (GNU) by arresting MDC supporters and directing events at the courts to keep MDC prisoners in jail.

    ******************

    Meantime, Grace Mugabe has been declared to have diplomatic immunity in China and Hong Kong and will not face any charges arising from her assault of Sunday Times of London photographer Richard Jones.

    Mrs Mugabe was in Hong Kong to collect Bona Mugabe, her and President Mugabe's daughter from University for her vacation back in Zimbabwe. Bona recently returned to Hong Kong after a delay of some weeks in Harare.

    The delay was caused by the Chinese authorities putting in measures to protect the First Student. Security has now been beefed up at the Villa where she is staying with the daughter of another ZANU PF cabinet minister while they attend university.

    Chinese police are now permamently stationed outside the complex and the Chinese government has now allocated additional plainclothes security to Bona. The Chinese have also worked with Mugabe's security to put in place a contingency plan for evacuation, if needed. It was only after the new measures were in place, I am told, that Bona went back.

    ********************

    There is chaos in Harare today and you should not be surprised to hear later on that soldiers have gone on the ramapge again.

    First street is absolutely choked with soldiers, policemen, teachers and other civil servants who are failing to access their US$100 salaries. They have been trying since Friday and it clear this morning on First Street that some of them have slept at the banks waiting for them to open. There are blankets and long jackets spread on the pavement, where the civil servants are sitting waiting for the money to get to the banks.

    I was very impressed by the soldier's queue. Straight as an arrow, with all of them standing straight, it looked like they were on parade when I passed by CABS First Street this morning!!

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  • Get Ready To Prop Up Mugabe. Yes, You!
    First, some latest news from here in Zimbabwe. Vice-President Joice Mujuru put on MDC regalia while Deputy Prime Minister Thokozani Khupe put on ZANU PF regalia yesterday. It was all in aid of International Women's Day.

    The two ladies took the opportunity to preach the new Coalition mantra, calling on supporters to desist from violence.

    Which is all very well, as far it goes, I suppose.

    But I do wish the MDC and ZANU PF would stop confusing their followers so. What are the bewildered "Mugabe Must Go" brigade to think now, seeing their own deputy president in the MDC putting on ZANU PF dress with Mugabe's face on it?

    And the ZANU PF folk? The "Tsvangirai Will Never Rule This Country" brigade, seeing their second-in-command in Chinja gear?

    It is a curious state of affairs, you'd think. But no. I think the selective arrests of the last few weeks show us what ZANU PF wants. Yes, the MDC may want a peaceful atmosphere in which to campaign next time round, but these recent selective arrests of MDC members in Mbare, Buhera and other areas show us what ZANU PF wants.

    ZANU PF simply wants to be left in peace to beat up any MDC supporter they fancy. When they do this, they are not arrested.......

    Anyway, the puzzled look on Harare streets today as people peered at the foreign-currency-charged Herald said it all.

    ****************

    Ah, yes, about the heading:

    I was just wondering, seeing as most of my readers are in the diaspora, would you remit money back home to your relatives through official means (Homelink) now that Tendai Biti is asking you to?

    Of course, we must recognise that that money will also contribute to the salaries of Mugabe, policemen, soldiers, ZANU PF ministers and so on. 

    This is the very same question that is confronting the West. Do we give money to this new government when we know that the money is going to be used to sustain the liestyles of the lavish-living ZANU PF ministers?

    I just wondered what you think would be the right thing to do. 

    But keep in mind that the revised budget that Tenda Biti proposed is now even more of a consumptive budget than the one issued by Patrick Chinamasa just before MDC joined government.

    Quite apart from the fact that Biti lied to the people of Zimbabwe in it, this budget is simply designed to sustain the wage bill of the bloated government.

    The US$700 million that Biti is said to have cut from the cut is the lie. What he in fact did was almost completely wipe out budgetary provisions for infrastructure rehabilitation.

    What needs cutting is not funds for infrastructure development, no. It is this very government. Get rid of half of these people in it and you will save US$500 million dollars. Take that and resurface the roads, repair dams (villagers are now resorting to doing it themselves, inadequately), repair the water reticulation and other infrastructural rot that is making this country a repellant against investment.

    It has been proved since the days of Roosevelt that the best way to create jobs and lay the foundation for a booming economy in depressive cinditions is through public works. Almost every single ecoomy that has gone the route of increased public works in a depression has come out of it stronger and never looked back.

     Then, the lie in the cut of the budget: In the same revised budget, Biti acknowledges that government's basic needs will end up goobling US$2 billion by the end of the year.

    That is more than even ZANU PF estimated.

    Still, we come back to the question: would you remit your funds and pay the fees that will support this government.

    And why?

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  • Mugabe Going Deaf plus Behind The Scenes in Mugabe and Tsvangirai's Coalition
    It appears to me that Mugabe is going deaf and I will prove it to you just now.

    Take a closer look at the picture above. You can click on it or download it to enlarge the pic. Now you will see that Mugabe is actually looking at Biti's mouth while Biti speaks, otherwise he would not be able to understand his finance minister!!

    When one becomes hard of hearing, they will always resort to some combination of using the hearing they have left and also lip-reading. And Mugabe looks rather frail, do you not think?

    Mugabe's deafness should surprise no one really, considering we have seen him over the years pretending not to hear the calls of his people and the world to step down.

    MDC cabinet members have also claimed to me directly that Mugabe regularly nods off in cabinet meeting, the meetings are unruly and generally a dog's breakfast.

    This could merely be smearing or there could be some truth to it, I thought at the time. But now that I see this pic, I am beginning to think maybe there is something to that talk.

    *****************


    I got a rare glimpse today into what it is that goes on behind the headline news around the Zimbabwe coalition between the MDC and ZANU PF.

    I managed to get a copy of the Short Term Economic Recovery Programme in it's draft form. This was the document presented to (and debated in) Cabinet by Tendai Biti and which was revised extensively at the insistence of ZANU PF.

    The evidence is there to see, because large chunks of the original document that came out of cabinet negotiations are simply crossed out and do not appear in the final product distributed yesterday at the launch of STERP.

    There is a huge chunk on what was Page 2 of the document, which goes into some detail about the need for the rule of law to be observed and land reform to be revisited for efficiency, which was simply run through with a red pen by Mugabe. 

    He likes doing that. 

    Those who have worked with him recount how, even the speeches that were written for him were not spared the red pen.

    He was a teacher and the habit is still within him, so he would mark ALL his speeches with the red pen, correcting various things. The "marked" copy would be sent back to be retyped.

    This is what comes through clearly in the draft document. It is only a draft now because ZANU PF managed to get all of the passages it didn't like struck out.

    On Page 3, for instance, where one of the conditions for economic recovery in Biti's original was "Democratisation", it was struck out and replaced with "Governance" by Mugabe and the ZANU PF ministers.

    Biti claims that they had to give in in order to get the STERP programme approved by cabinet. 

    He did get his own back, though, if you noticed. Although they had censored the document itself, Mugabe and his crew could not do the same with Biti's speech. The Minister's speech is his own and he does not need to have it approved by anybody.

    So Biti used the speech to inject back some of the things that had been taken out during cabinet negotiations, such as farm invasions and human rights and democracy.

    ZANU PF are said to be fuming at this display of one-upmanship, but there is little they can do about it really. Mugabe, perhaps you didn't know, can not fire Biti. Just as he can not fire Tsvangirai. They can say whatever they want whenever they want and still continue to be Honorable This and That. Which makes the MDC's propensity for giving in and speaking softly in government rather puzzling.

    Here is the chance they have to show the world that in terms of their cultures, their values and their approach to things, they are the opposite of ZANU PF today. Yet they let it go? I wonder.....

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  • The MDC Now Says Zimbabwe Is Under Sanctions
    Tendai Biti, Zimbabwe Minister of Finance, delivering the Short Term Economic Recovery Programme in Harare today

    Tendai Biti launched the Short Term Economic Recovery Programme in Harare today together with Robert Mugabe and Acting Prime Minister Thokozani Khupe.

    For those present at the ceremony, it was sad to miss Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, who is recuperating in South Africa and is only expected back in Harare next week. What we got today is really his big Action Plan for Zimbabwe, and welcome news to the ears of the weary citizens of Zimbabwe.

    But what struck me was Tendai Biti's admission that there are indeed sanctions on Zimbabwe. Previously, the MDC and its supporters have always maintained that these are only "targeted sanctions, travel bans and the like, just a harmless bit of fun at ZANU PF's expense."

    Biti told the gathering today, " STERP recognises that apart from targeted travel bans, measures have been taken against Zimbabwe, denying the country the right to access credit facilities from international financial institutions,suspending Zimbabwe's Voting Rights, as well as denying Zimbabwean companies access to lines of credit."

    It gets worse.

    "In this regard, discussions have already started with the European Union, European Commission, World Bank, IMF, and the AfDB with the objective of removing the above sanctions and measures in compliance with Article 4.6 (c) of the GPA. As far as the USA is concerned, it is imperative that the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act (ZIDERA) be repealed and representations and consultations have already begun in this respect."

    It is an extremely interesting development indeed.

    There were other points to take special note of in this STERP thing.

    Such as, for instance, the fact that the Programme is said by Biti to run from March to December 2009.  The MDC are locking themselves into the corridors of power, that's what this means. This government, if you recall, is supposed to be reviewed by SADC at the end of six months, which is in about four months' time.

    Given the continued flouting of the Agreement by ZANU PF, the selective application of the law, especially, as well as the continued presence of two relics from the past whom the MDC has vowed to get rid of: the Attorney General and the Governor of The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, one would think there was no reason for the MDC to be optimistic about the future of this GNU creature.

    What do they intend to do at the review, if not trot out the various ways and means in which Mugabe has sought to frustrate the opposition party? Will they say, "Oh everything is just fine, thank you for asking. In fact, we now think good old Bob is not such a bad chap after all. He's like a father to us, you know. No, we are doing ok"?

    What will people who remain in jail or on trial on spurious charges think of this approach? Can they expect that they will remain harassed until the GNU ends in 2 or (as is now being discussed in government) 5 years years time?

    Other than that, the STERP document is nothing more than a compilation of the nation's misery, ending in Biti and Mugabe bringing out the begging bowl and looking around to see if anyone feels sorry enough for us now.

    That is all there is to it, really. Like I said in my article below this one, the Obama government reacted rather swiftly, answering the call to lift sanctions (Biti specifically called for ZIDERA, the American Act on Zimbabwe, to be repealed by the US Congress) by saying they will do no such thing.

    Those insults to be traded between the MDC and America are not too far off. Biti is a livewire and the frustration, already showing will lead to an outburst one of these days. If Mutambara joins in, as well he might, then God help us all.

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  • Tsvangirai and Biti's Risky Attempt To Force Mugabe's Hand
    Tendai Biti, MDCs minister of Finance, chats with the man he said last week is now "like a father" to the MDC, President Robert Mugabe. This was at the unveiling of the Short Term Economic Recovery Programme (STERP) earlier today. Mugabe and Biti publicly begged for US$5 billion. But in the background, the MDC have kicked into action a risky strategy to get rid of one man, Gideon Gono, Governor of the Reserve Bank. Read on.


    So determined are the MDC to get rid of Gideon Gono, the Reserve Bank Governor, that they have now embarked on a risky strategy to force Mugabe's hand.

    So even as they smiled at each other during the launch of the Short Term Economic Recovery Programme today, the daggers are secretly drawn.

    Tendai Biti says the country is broke, totally broke. There is no money at the Reserve Bank to meet even the most rudimentary needs of government, let alone teachers' US$100 "salaries" (which the teachers want reviewed anyway). 

    But teachers started receiving the March US$100 salary in their bank accounts today. Question mark right there.

    As for where the money came from, I expect anyone who is so stupid as to ask will get the same response from Biti as he gave last month: "Takango kiya-kiya." Meaning, "We made a plan."

    In fact, the MDC wants to use the reluctance by the world to come to the rescue of Zimbabwe to get rid of Gono. They are telling ZANU PF that as long as Gono remains Governor, then those with the money say they are unwilling to give it to Zimbabwe.

    Biti and Tsvangirai are pursuing this policy doggedly. Hence the by-now routine warnings that the coffers are empty before money is found the very next day for foreign currency salaries or new vehicles and new leather furniture for ministerial offices.

    An MDC official claims, "Ndisu tiri kuti 'imbomirai' kuvanhu vane mari, Gono ari kufanirwa kuenda." - "We are the oes telling the donors to hold off giving us anything, Gono must go."

    The idea is to see who will give in first. Mugabe or Tsvangirai, MDC or ZANU PF. Squeeze the money side, is the current MDC reasoning, and Mugabe will have to give in at some point.

    "We will tell him, look Old Man," says the rather optimistic MDC official I spoke to, "you can't let a whole country collapse just because of Gono. Find something else for him to do. Make him an ambassador or whatever, but keeping him means no money coming into Zimbabwe."

    I say "optimistic" because the reality of this game may turn out different to what the MDC think. Has it occurred to them that perhaps Mugabe WANTS them to collapse. Have they thought that the old man is wishing that the whole thing would collapse on the MDC's watch?

    He would then simply campaign by telling people that the MDC was given a chance to deliver and they failed. They were in charge of policy and policy formulation and they could not come up with the said policies to get Zimbabwe out of the doldrums.

    I do not think that, no matter what pressure they put Mugabe under, he will give in and get rid of Gono. He has nothing to gain from doing so and everything to lose. Books will have to be audited, and that is one whole big can of worms...

    Back when all this started, Mugabe told his moribund Politburo that letting an MDC minister of Finance appoint a Governor at the RBZ would be tantamount to "Kuisa gonzo mudura." Meaning "throwing a rat into the granary."

    If you were to bet, which outcome would you back: Mugabe giving in and firing Gono or the MDC having to withdraw from that fight and living with Gono?

    Oh, by the way, as for this joke called STERP, which Mugabe and Biti announced today, the American responded VERY swiftly. The State Department issued a statement saying, "this government has to show more before we will consider removing any targeted sanctions or for putting together an aid package."

    One of the concerns from America has to do with the gluttony and greed exhibited by this government. So, just after Mugabe gave his plea earlier today ("Friends of Zimbabwe, please help us," were his words), America gave him their answer.

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  • The Destruction Of The MDC Has Started
    All the President's Men: (from right to left - Police Commissioner-General Augustine Chihuri, Defence Forces Commander Constantine Chiwengwa, Air Marshal Perence Shiri of the Air Force of Zimbabwe and General Sibanda, Commander of the Army)

    Last weekend, I told you about Mugabe's speech at the burial of Vitalis Zvinavashe, the former Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces.

    Mugabe described those engaged in continuing violence that they were "enemies of Zimbabwe". Of course, the state media had prepared the ground by telling us over and over again that MDC supporters were torching the huts of ZANU PF supporters and beating them up.

    Prior to this, General Chiwengwa, the current head of the Armed Forces of Zimbabwe, had also issued a "warning" to these people. Which was itself disturbing because we have never had an army commander issuing such orders, leaving it to politicians.

    Now, however, my warnings are being borne out. Police in Buhera have arrested more than 20 MDC supporters and has charged them with violence. The MDC mayor of Mutare, as well as his deputy, were arrested TWICE. The two have now been released, but the other MDC supporters remain in jail.

    The curious thing about this is that the MDC supporters supporters were apparently retaliating to the burning of a hut belonging to an MDC supporter. The MDC supporter is said to have told his colleagues at the funeral of Mrs Tsvangirai about the incident and they all piled into cars, drove to the culprit's homestead and burnt down his huts, as well as chicken runs. It is claimed some chickens got burnt in process as well!

    The bottom line is this, really: the MDC continues to behave as though this is a normal coalition. You will notice that no ZANU PF supporters are being arrested in this wave of arrests, although their own acts of violence are being reported to the police.

    Now, if the police do not react to these acts by the ZANU PF hooligans, certainly, MDC supporters will feel that they have to take the law into their own hands. The law itself has made it clear that they do not deserve any protection from ZANU PF thugs because they are MDC members.

    Instead of warning these MDC supporters, shouldn't the government (only the government, the army should stay out of this) be warning its own police force that they should investigate and arrest people who engage in violence even if they are ZANU PF supporters.

    Yesterday, Giles Mutsekwa, the MDC co-minister of Home Affairs, held a press conference together with his ZANU PF co-minister, Kembo Mohadi. During the press conference, they both gave warning to people who are engaged in violence. But it is clear that as far as the police, whom these men are in charge of, think this warning applies only to the MDC supporters.

    And the MDC co-minister actually allows this? Why is he not at the very least speaking out against the selective arrests of members of his party?

    You should expect that Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai's Zimbabwe will turn out to be no different to the Zimbabwe run only by Mugabe. This is intimidation, basically, against opposition supporters, showing them that ZANU PF supporters continue to enjoy impunity. They can do whatever they want and, should the other party retaliate because the police seen unwilling to do anything, then it is the victim that gets arrested.

    Mugabe and Mnangagwa, (who is already campaigning, if you listen to his speeches from this week), intend to bring the full force of the police to bear down on MDC supporters, as has been the case for years.

    ZANU PF believes that it owns the rural areas, which is where the majority of our people live. Ity will not allow the MDC or any other opposition to encroach on that territory. So, if anyone wants to see just how sincere ZANU PF is about sharing power, the true litmus test is how it responds to the MDC and other opposition groupings campaigning in the rural areas.

    The cities and urban centres, which Mugabe has given up on, are alright, very peaceful with no violence whatsoever. It is the rural areas that are going to prove the undoing of this government, unless, of course, the MDC has also now decided to simply ignore all that and join hands with ZANU PF regardless.

    What we should be very afraid of now, however, is the fact that Mugabe's heir-apparent, Mnangagwa, who says he is "ready to take over", is now in charge of the armed forces.

    Mark these words: the army will get involved in this before long. And we know from experience that when the army gets involved, they do not exercise restraint. 

    What they want, the Mnangagwa camp, is to defend their rural electoral strongholds and they are going to bring the army  into this to smash the opposition in the rural areas.

    As Mnangagwa told a friend two weeks, "I do not mind Morgan being my Prime Minister when I take over." Which means ZANU PF has given up on the urban areas, opposition strongholds and now wants to defend its rural base. 

    The purpose is to ensure that, at the very least, we get another parliament in which no party has an outright majority, making it necessary to have another coalition government.

    As for the presidential election, Mnangagwa points to the fact that, in terms of numbers, ZANU PF won more votes in the parliamentary elections than the MDC, it is in terms of the seats that they were beaten.

    So, he reckons, if there is no other party running (read Mavambo or the revived ZAPU), then he could get the ZANU PF vote out and still win the presidency. To do this, he realises, he will have to embark on a massive intimidatory campaign in the rural areas. And it is a safe bet to say that the intimidation, which we will start seeing after the SADC meeting in South Africa in about four months time, will be led by the soldiers, whom Mnangagwa is now in charge of.

    So, yes, the destruction of the MDC in the rural areas has started. ZANU PF is only waiting for the review of the GNU by SADC, to take place six months after the formation of the GNU. After that, the gloves will be taken off.

    Mark these words.

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